1. Home
  2. Blog
  3. UPSC

Lancet: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declines across the world

Why is it in the news?

  • Lancet’s ‘Global Burden of Disease’ study finds Total Fertility Rate (TFR) decline across the world since 1950.

 Key Findings from study

  • Global TFR Decline: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) worldwide has more than halved from 4.84 in 1950 to 23 in 2021.
  • Projected TFR: Projections estimate a further decline to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 in 2100 globally.
  • Countries Below Replacement Rate: In 47 countries, fertility has been below the replacement rate from 1950 to 2021.
  • India’s TFR: India’s TFR notably decreased from 6.8 in 1950 to 91 in 2021, with projections indicating further declines to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
  • Primary Drivers of Declining Fertility: Improving access to modern contraceptives and female education are identified as two primary drivers of declining fertility rates.
Replacement Rate

·       The replacement rate is the minimum rate necessary for the generational replacement of a population, assuming no migration.

·       Generally accepted as a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of at least 2.1.

·       TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have in her childbearing years, typically considered to be ages 15-49.

 

Impact of Low Levels of Fertility

  • Changes in Age Structure: Low fertility rates result in a growing elderly population and a shrinking working-age population, impacting labour force dynamics.
  • Strain on Healthcare and Social Systems: This demographic shift may increase the burden on healthcare and social systems due to a larger elderly population.
  • Empowerment of Women: Lower fertility rates can improve women’s decision-making power within households.

Policy Suggestions

  • Pro-natal Policies: Implement policies such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives to encourage childbirth.
  • Access to Modern Contraceptives: Ensure widespread access to modern contraceptives to empower individuals to make informed choices about family planning.
  • Expansion of Female Education: Invest in expanding access to education for women, which correlates with lower fertility rates.
  • Investment in Social Security and Healthcare: Strengthen social security programs and healthcare infrastructure to support aging populations and address associated challenges.

Get free UPSC Updates straight to your inbox!

Discover more from AMIGOS IAS

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading