Introduction

On Monday, a significant political shift occurred in Bangladesh as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, sought refuge in India. This came after jubilant crowds thronged the streets of Dhaka, storming the Prime Minister’s residence, and the Bangladeshi army declared it was taking charge of the country. The resignation of Sheikh Hasina, a long-time ally of India, signals potential disruptions in the trade and infrastructure links between Dhaka and New Delhi, which had flourished under her regime.

India’s Role in Bangladesh’s Liberation and Beyond

• Bangladesh’s tumultuous political landscape has been profoundly shaped by its liberation war in 1971.
• The conflict began after Pakistan’s refusal to recognize the electoral victory of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League in East Pakistan, leading to a brutal military crackdown.
• India played a crucial role in supporting the Mukti Bahini, the Bengali guerrilla resistance, ultimately aiding Bangladesh in achieving independence.
• In the years following independence, Bangladesh experienced a series of military coups, beginning with the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975.
• The military’s grip on politics persisted, with successive coups and periods of martial law, notably under leaders like Maj Gen Ziaur Rahman and Lt Gen Hussain Muhammad Ershad.
• The army’s interference continued until the early 1990s when parliamentary democracy was reinstated, though not without further attempts at coups and political instability.
• India has been a steadfast ally to Bangladesh since its independence.  During the liberation war of 1971, India provided crucial military and humanitarian support to the Mukti Bahini, the Bengali resistance force, against the Pakistani military.
• This historical alliance laid the foundation for enduring bilateral relations, which have been especially strong during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.

The Influence of the Military in Bangladesh’s Politics

• Bangladesh’s political landscape has been marred by frequent military interventions.
• Following Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975, the country witnessed a series of military coups and periods of martial law. Leaders like Gen Ziaur Rahman and Lt Gen Hussain Muhammad Ershad played pivotal roles in the country’s governance, often sidelining democratic processes.
• In 2008, Sheikh Hasina returned to power, marking the beginning of a new era of civilian rule.  Her administration worked to reduce the military’s influence in politics, reinforcing the secular principles of the Bangladesh constitution.
• However, the military’s recent involvement in her resignation highlights the persistent volatility in Bangladeshi politics.

Sheikh Hasina’s Legacy and Impact on India-Bangladesh Relations

• Sheikh Hasina’s tenure brought significant political stability and economic growth to Bangladesh. Her government maintained strong ties with India, marked by mutual support in combating terrorism and fostering economic cooperation.
• India’s strategic interests were well-served under Hasina’s leadership, with key agreements on maritime and land boundaries being resolved amicably.
• Hasina’s personal connections with Indian leaders, particularly the Gandhi family, played a crucial role in strengthening bilateral relations.  Her efforts in cracking down on anti-India terrorist groups and promoting regional stability were widely recognized.  However, her government also faced criticism for alleged human rights abuses and authoritarian practices.

Current Crisis and Regional Implications

• The recent ousting of Sheikh Hasina, facilitated by the Bangladeshi army, raises several concerns for India.
• Her departure, orchestrated amid allegations of election rigging and authoritarianism, has left a power vacuum in Dhaka.
• The new regime, likely skeptical of India’s close ties with Hasina, could recalibrate its foreign policy, potentially affecting bilateral trade and security cooperation.
• New Delhi faces the challenge of navigating this political transition without exacerbating anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh.
• Given the historical grievances of the Bangladeshi opposition towards India’s perceived favoritism towards Hasina, the Indian government must tread carefully to maintain regional stability.

The Economic and Strategic Implications of Hasina’s Resignation

• Bangladesh is a key economic partner for India, with bilateral trade amounting to $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24.
• Major exports from India to Bangladesh include cotton, petroleum products, and cereals, while Bangladesh’s top exports to India are ready-made garments.
• The two countries have also been working on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to further enhance trade and investment.
• Hasina’s resignation could jeopardize these growing economic ties. The interim government or the next regime may reassess its policies towards India, potentially affecting trade agreements and infrastructure projects.
• The recent inauguration of the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link and other connectivity initiatives highlight the importance of maintaining stable relations.

Challenges and Opportunities for India

• India faces significant challenges in navigating the political transition in Bangladesh.
• The new power centers in Dhaka, some of whom harbor past grudges against India, could adopt a more adversarial stance.  This could complicate India’s strategic interests, especially given the ongoing tensions with Pakistan and China.
• Engaging with the new regime in Bangladesh, leveraging existing ties with the Bangladeshi military, and addressing the concerns of the Bangladeshi populace will be critical for India.
• Ensuring the safety of Sheikh Hasina and maintaining a balanced approach towards the new government will require careful diplomatic maneuvering.

The Path Forward

• India’s diplomatic strategy will be crucial in addressing the evolving political dynamics in Bangladesh.
• With multiple frontiers already fraught with tension, including the Line of Control with Pakistan and the standoff with China in eastern Ladakh, India cannot afford another destabilizing factor in its eastern neighbor.
• Engagement with the new power structures in Dhaka, leveraging the established ties with the Bangladeshi military, and addressing the concerns of the Bangladeshi populace will be vital.
• Ensuring the safety of Sheikh Hasina and potentially facilitating her political asylum will also test New Delhi’s diplomatic acumen.

Conclusion

The unfolding political crisis in Bangladesh underscores the intricate interplay between domestic politics and international relations in South Asia. For India, supporting democratic stability in Bangladesh while safeguarding its strategic interests will require a nuanced and proactive diplomatic approach. As the region braces for potential shifts, the imperative for peace and cooperation remains paramount.