Introduction

India-Ukraine relations have recently garnered significant attention due to the historic visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine. This visit is notable not only because it marks the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited Ukraine since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, but also because it comes at a time of global tension following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This article delves into the history, areas of cooperation, challenges, and emerging opportunities in India-Ukraine relations, while also analyzing the implications of this visit on India’s foreign policy.

Historical Background of India-Ukraine Relations

Establishment of Diplomatic Relations

• India was among the first countries to recognize Ukraine after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, establishing diplomatic relations in January 1992.
• The Embassy of India was opened in Kyiv in May 1992, followed by Ukraine opening its mission in Delhi in February 1993, marking its first diplomatic presence in Asia.
• Despite these early steps, India’s close ties with Russia often overshadowed its engagement with Ukraine, leading to a more cautious approach in bilateral relations.

Phase of Limited Engagement

• Although India and Ukraine cooperated in various domains, including defense and cultural exchanges, India’s historical bias towards Russia prevented a full-throttle engagement with Ukraine.
• This relationship was further complicated by Ukraine’s occasional criticism of India’s policies, including its nuclear tests and stance on Kashmir.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

• The Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted India-Ukraine relations, particularly in economic terms. Bilateral trade, which was valued at $3.39 billion in 2021-22, plummeted to $0.71 billion in 2023-24.
• This decline is a direct result of the geopolitical tensions and the war’s disruption of trade routes and supply chains.

Areas of Cooperation Between India and Ukraine

1. Geopolitical Cooperation

• India and Ukraine have a history of geopolitical cooperation, dating back to the Soviet era. The Soviet Union, under the leadership of Ukrainian-born Leonid Brezhnev, supported India during the 1971 war against Pakistan. This era also saw the popularization of the slogan “Hindi-Rusi Bhai Bhai” by Nikita Khrushchev.
• In recent years, regular high-level interactions between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have underscored the importance of this relationship.

2. Defense Cooperation

• Ukraine has been a significant source of military technology and equipment for India. For instance, Ukraine-manufactured R-27 air-to-air missiles are used by the Indian Air Force on its SU-30MKI fighters.Additionally, India has started exporting defense equipment to Ukraine, particularly during its ongoing conflict with Russia.

3. Economic Cooperation

• Before the war, India was one of Ukraine’s largest trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region.  In 2020, India was Ukraine’s fifth-largest export destination.
• The main exports from Ukraine to India include agricultural products, metallurgical products, and plastics, while India exports pharmaceuticals, machinery, and chemicals to Ukraine.
• The bilateral trade, which reached $3.386 billion in 2021-22, has since suffered due to the war.

5. Diaspora Cooperation

• The Indian community in Ukraine, consisting mostly of business professionals and medical students, has played a pivotal role in fostering cultural and economic ties.
• The “India Club” association regularly organizes cultural and sports events, enhancing people-to-people connections between the two nations.

6. Cultural Cooperation

• Cultural exchanges between India and Ukraine have been robust, with more than 30 Ukrainian cultural associations promoting Indian art forms, yoga, and Ayurveda. The shooting of Indian movies in Ukraine, such as the iconic “Naatu Naatu” song from the film “RRR,” further highlights the cultural connections.

7. Institutional Cooperation

• India has offered several scholarship programs to Ukrainian students, including the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program, Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) scholarships, and Kendriya Hindi Sansthan scholarships.

Challenges in India-Ukraine Relations

1. Decline in Bilateral Trade

• The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, from $3.39 billion in 2021-22 to $0.71 billion in 2023-24. This has adversely affected India’s imports of essential goods such as agricultural products and military equipment.

2. Impact on India’s Imports

• The disruption in trade has had a direct impact on India’s import of sunflower oil, leading to inflationary pressures in the country.Additionally, the supply chain of machine-building and military goods from Ukraine has been severely affected.

3. India’s Relations with Russia

• India’s close relationship with Russia, and its decision to avoid public criticism of Moscow, has created friction in its geopolitical cooperation with Ukraine.This delicate balancing act remains a significant challenge for India’s foreign policy.

4. Ukraine’s Past Criticism of India

• Ukraine’s past criticism of India’s nuclear tests and Kashmir policy has been a sore point in bilateral relations. These issues have occasionally hindered the full potential of India-Ukraine engagement.

Emerging Opportunities in India-Ukraine Relations

1. Post-War Reconstruction in Ukraine

• The possibility of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine presents numerous opportunities for India. Ukraine’s need for weapons and military technology could lead to enhanced defense cooperation, with India providing Soviet-era arms and ammunition in exchange for Western technology.

2. Geostrategic Cooperation in the Indian Ocean

• Ukraine’s expertise in innovative waterborne technology could be a strategic asset for India, particularly in countering China’s influence in the Indian Ocean region. Collaboration in this area could be a game-changer for India’s maritime security.

3. Shifting Production Bases to India

• Closer cooperation between India and Ukraine could lead to the relocation of Ukrainian manufacturing companies to India. For example, the gas turbine manufacturing company Zorya-Mashproekt could potentially shift its production base to India, enhancing industrial collaboration.

4. Employment Opportunities

• The reconstruction of Ukraine post-conflict will likely create significant employment opportunities for India’s labor market, particularly in sectors such as construction and infrastructure development.

5. Enhanced Digital Cooperation

• Deepening relations between India and Ukraine could lead to significant advancements in digital cooperation. For example, India’s electronic voting machines could be invaluable to wartime Ukraine, while Ukraine’s DIIA app, which places government documents and services on a smartphone, could revolutionize Indian governance.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine signifies a shift in India’s foreign policy, moving away from its traditional alignment with Russia. The visit opens new avenues for cooperation in defense, economy, and politics, but also presents challenges in balancing relationships with both Russia and Ukraine. Amid the ongoing conflict, India has the opportunity to enhance its global role and forge stronger ties with both established allies and new partners.