Why is it in the news?

• Lancet’s ‘Global Burden of Disease’ study finds Total Fertility Rate (TFR) decline across the world since 1950.

 Key Findings from study

• Global TFR Decline: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) worldwide has more than halved from 4.84 in 1950 to 23 in 2021.
• Projected TFR: Projections estimate a further decline to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 in 2100 globally.
• Countries Below Replacement Rate: In 47 countries, fertility has been below the replacement rate from 1950 to 2021.
• India’s TFR: India’s TFR notably decreased from 6.8 in 1950 to 91 in 2021, with projections indicating further declines to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
• Primary Drivers of Declining Fertility: Improving access to modern contraceptives and female education are identified as two primary drivers of declining fertility rates.

Impact of Low Levels of Fertility

• Changes in Age Structure: Low fertility rates result in a growing elderly population and a shrinking working-age population, impacting labour force dynamics.
• Strain on Healthcare and Social Systems: This demographic shift may increase the burden on healthcare and social systems due to a larger elderly population.
• Empowerment of Women: Lower fertility rates can improve women’s decision-making power within households.

Policy Suggestions

• Pro-natal Policies: Implement policies such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives to encourage childbirth.
• Access to Modern Contraceptives: Ensure widespread access to modern contraceptives to empower individuals to make informed choices about family planning.
• Expansion of Female Education: Invest in expanding access to education for women, which correlates with lower fertility rates.
• Investment in Social Security and Healthcare: Strengthen social security programs and healthcare infrastructure to support aging populations and address associated challenges.