Impact of La Niña on India’s Climate

GS 1: Geography:  La Niña

Why is it in the news?

• La Niña, expected to emerge by mid-2024, has yet to form, delaying its anticipated impact on global and regional climates.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now forecasts its potential emergence in late 2024 or early 2025, which may result in a milder winter for India.

What is La Niña?

• La Niña, a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean between Indonesia and South America. Its counterpart, El Niño, involves warmer temperatures in the same region. These oscillations significantly affect global weather patterns.
• La Niña typically brings normal or above-average monsoon rainfall in India but causes droughts in Africa and intensifies Atlantic hurricanes. In contrast, El Niño results in severe summers and droughts in India while increasing rainfall in the southern United States.
• Notably, the rare occurrence of three consecutive La Niña events from 2020 to 2022, termed a “Triple Dip La Niña,” was followed by an El Niño in 2023. Climate change may exacerbate the frequency and intensity of both phenomena due to rising sea and land temperatures, potentially amplifying extreme weather events.

Will La Niña Emerge This Winter?

• Unlike prior years, the anticipated La Niña for 2024 has not yet formed. Historically, La Niña often develops during monsoon or pre-monsoon periods, with only two instances of its emergence between October and December since 1950. Current forecasts estimate a 57% chance of a weak La Niña forming by December 2024.
• The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a key metric comparing three-month average sea surface temperatures to a 30-year baseline, is currently at –0.3ºC. For a La Niña to be officially declared, ONI values must be –0.5ºC or lower for at least five consecutive measurements.

Meteorological Impacts of La Niña

• Southern Indian cities like Bengaluru and Hyderabad are experiencing colder-than-usual winters, while northern India is witnessing delayed winters with above-normal temperatures.
• Despite some reports linking the southern chill to La Niña, current ONI values do not support this. If La Niña were already active, northern India would likely be experiencing colder-than-normal winters. Research indicates that La Niña winters typically have colder nights but higher daytime temperatures compared to El Niño years.
• Meteorological parameters like wind speed and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) also fluctuate during ENSO phases, influencing air quality.
• Higher wind speeds during La Niña winters help disperse pollutants, potentially improving air quality, whereas a lower PBLH could trap pollutants near the ground, particularly as biomass burning increases for heating.

La Niña and Indian Monsoons

• La Niña significantly influences Indian summers and monsoons. While El Niño is associated with harsher summers and disrupted monsoons, La Niña promotes robust rainfall. For example, the intense heat waves of April 2023 were linked to El Niño, which also caused below-normal monsoon rainfall that year.
• Conversely, La Niña years like 2020, 2021, and 2022 saw normal or above-normal monsoon rains. Historical data since 1871 shows that El Niño years often result in below-average rainfall, particularly in northern and southern India.
• However, central India appears less affected. If a La Niña emerges now and persists into 2025, it may alleviate summer heat and enhance monsoon performance, ensuring better rainfall distribution.

Conclusion

• The delayed onset of La Niña in 2024 has implications for India’s winter, summer, and monsoon patterns. While a late or weak La Niña might mitigate harsh winters, its arrival in early 2025 could positively influence summer heat and monsoon rainfall.
• Understanding and preparing for ENSO-driven climate variability is crucial for managing its socio-economic and environmental impacts.

Exams Reforms: Key Recommendations for Improved Security, Infrastructure, and Efficiency

GS 2: Society: Ensuring fair conduct of exams

Why is it in the news?

• A high-level committee, led by former ISRO Chairman Dr. K Radhakrishnan, submitted a report to the Ministry of Education recommending reforms to ensure the “smooth and fair” conduct of exams and to strengthen the National Testing Agency (NTA).

Why Was the Committee Constituted?

• The committee was formed in June 2024 following a NEET-UG paper leak, which exposed lapses in the NTA’s processes. The CBI investigation revealed that 144 candidates allegedly paid to obtain leaked and solved NEET-UG papers, which were stolen, photographed, and distributed before the exam.
• Additionally, three other public exams — UGC-NET, CSIR-UGC NET, and NEET-PG — were either postponed or cancelled. UGC-NET, for example, was cancelled after receiving information that the paper had been leaked on the dark net.
• Amid public outrage over these irregularities, the Ministry of Education tasked the committee with recommending reforms on three key areas: improving exam mechanisms, enhancing data security protocols, and strengthening the NTA’s structure and operations.
• The Supreme Court later added that the committee should suggest advanced security protocols, including encryption and secure data transmission, and update NTA policies to align with global best practices.
• The committee consulted stakeholders such as students, academicians, state governments, police, and exam-conducting agencies to prepare its recommendations.

Key Recommendations for Examinations

The committee proposed several measures to improve the integrity and efficiency of entrance examinations:

• Conducting exams online wherever possible, while allowing for digital transmission of question papers that can still be answered on paper.
• Involving state governments to strengthen exam security by setting up coordination committees at district and state levels.
• Developing a policy to allocate test centres in candidates’ residential districts to address concerns over faraway test centre allotment.
• Establishing secured testing centres in every district and mobile testing centres in rural and remote areas.
• Introducing multi-stage and multi-session testing, as seen in JEE-Main and JEE-Advanced, to enhance exam reliability.
• Implementing multi-stage identity authentication using Aadhaar biometrics.
• Providing guidelines for question paper setting and training teams involved in the examination process.
• Strengthening the NTA by hiring more permanent staff, reducing reliance on contract workers.
• Currently, the NTA conducts exams in government schools, AICTE-recognized institutes, and private centres. The move towards online exams will require expanding infrastructure with more computer-equipped centres.

Long-Term Recommendations

• The committee’s recommendations extend beyond NEET-UG and aim to improve all entrance tests conducted by the Centre. One key suggestion is transitioning to computer-adaptive testing.
• Unlike traditional testing, this method selects questions based on the test-taker’s ability, updating the difficulty level dynamically during the exam. This approach improves test security and provides a more accurate assessment of individual capabilities.
• The committee also recommended building long-term infrastructure for a public test platform under the NTA, ensuring a robust system for entrance examinations.

Implementation of Recommendations

• Since the committee submitted its report, the Ministry of Education has begun implementing its suggestions. It has written to all states and Union Territories, requesting their cooperation in ensuring exam security.
• A high-powered steering committee, as recommended by the Radhakrishnan panel, has been set up to monitor the implementation of reforms.
• To strengthen the NTA, the government has created 16 new posts under the central staffing scheme, including eight at the director level and eight at the joint director level. This measure aims to reduce NTA’s reliance on contract staffing and improve operational efficiency.

Conclusion

• The committee’s recommendations address critical concerns regarding exam integrity, security, and infrastructure.
• By implementing reforms such as online testing, secured centres, and computer-adaptive testing, the government aims to enhance fairness and reliability in entrance examinations, ensuring a stronger, more secure system for the future.

The Transcendental Legacy of Ustad Zakir Hussain

GS 1: Culture: Arts

Why is it in the news?

• In the tributes that poured in following the sudden passing of Ustad Zakir Hussain, one common theme emerged: the holy grail for any musician is to be both credible among connoisseurs and popular with the public, to propel one’s art form forward while staying true to its roots, and to combine technical mastery with the artistry that defines great music.
• The legendary tabla maestro and maverick musician achieved this and, in doing so, forged a musical legacy that will resonate across generations.

Elevating the Tabla to New Heights

• To truly appreciate Hussain’s legacy, it is essential to look at the history of the tabla, an instrument with which he is synonymous. According to Hussain, the tabla is “one of the youngest instruments in the field of North Indian Classical music.” While its precursors date back millennia, the tabla as we know it evolved in the early 19th century.
• Before the 1950s, it was merely an accompaniment in classical music performances, with tabla players often receiving little recognition. As Hussain noted, their names were not mentioned on record covers, and their remuneration was a fraction of that received by lead artists.
• Zakir Hussain is credited with elevating the tabla’s status and bringing it to global prominence. He was hailed as a pathbreaker and an icon who placed the tabla and Indian music on the world map.
• However, he always acknowledged the contributions of Pandit Samta Prasad, Pandit Kishan Maharaj, and his father Ustad Alla Rakha for this achievement.

Transcending Styles and Genres

• Beyond classical music, Hussain was instrumental in popularizing world music, an eclectic fusion of musical traditions from around the globe. His Grammy-winning band, Shakti, partnered with jazz guitarist John McLaughlin, violinist L Shankar, and ghatam maestro “Vikku” Vinayakram.
• Hussain described Shakti as unique, exploring the commonality between Indian music and jazz, particularly the role of improvisation.

A Charismatic Master of His Craft

• Zakir Hussain’s tabla playing was defined by his mastery of the instrument, but it was his style and presentation that made him stand out. Belonging to the Punjab gharana, he was trained by his father to play in the styles of all different gharanas, which allowed him to create his own unique sound.
• Hussain dismissed the limiting nature of gharanas, encouraging young tabla players to embrace different styles without viewing them as “wrong.”
• Hussain’s charisma on stage was unmatched. Chaudhuri recalled that Hussain knew how to connect with audiences, creating an engaging and jovial atmosphere while still maintaining a deep respect for his music. His ability to communicate through his performances made his live shows unforgettable.
• Hussain’s performances were often described as mesmerizing, with his tabla playing able to tell stories, sometimes even incorporating the rhythmic syllables, or “bols,” of the tabla compositions.

Technical Mastery and Humble Attitude

• Hussain’s technical proficiency was legendary. Reviews of his performances, such as one from the New York Times, praised his ability to combine precise technique with playful creativity.
• Hussain’s performances were often hailed as “perfect,” but the maestro himself did not believe in perfection. As he expressed in his biography, he viewed each performance as a new beginning, with music dying each night and being reborn the next day.
• He was humble in his pursuit of excellence, stating, “Perfection is something you’ll never attain. But it doesn’t matter if I don’t attain it, at least, I would have tried.”
• In his passing, Ustad Zakir Hussain leaves behind a transcendent legacy that has reshaped the world of tabla and continues to inspire musicians across genres.

The Franklin Fire in Malibu

GS 1: Geography: Wildfires and its impact

Why is it in the news?

• Firefighters are continuing their battle against the Franklin Fire, which began on December 9 in Malibu, California. This destructive wildfire has scorched over 4,000 acres, impacting about 22,000 people.
• While the cause of the fire is still under investigation, experts point to two main factors contributing to its rapid spread: the “Santa Ana” winds and climate change.

Understanding the ‘Santa Ana’ Winds

• The “Santa Ana” winds occur when high pressure builds over the Great Basin, an area between the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, while low pressure exists over California’s coast. This pressure difference drives powerful winds from the inland deserts of Southern California, over the mountains, toward the Pacific Ocean.
• As these winds descend from the mountains, they compress and heat up, causing a dramatic drop in humidity, often below 20% or even 10%. This lack of moisture dries out vegetation, making it highly flammable and contributing to the intensity of wildfires like the Franklin Fire.
• Santa Ana winds are typical between October and January, with winter weather patterns allowing high pressure near the surface of the Great Basin, interacting with low-pressure air over the Pacific.

The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfires

• While Santa Ana-driven wildfires have long been a natural part of California’s landscape, experts argue that climate change is exacerbating the problem. Research shows that California’s wildfire season has lengthened in recent years.
• A 2021 study in Nature Scientific Reports found that the annual burn season has stretched over the past two decades, with the peak now occurring in July rather than August.
• Furthermore, the severity of these fires has increased, with a 2023 study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences revealing that 10 of the largest wildfires in California history occurred within the last 20 years, half of them in 2020 alone.
• The rise in global temperatures, driven by climate change, has led to warmer springs and summers and earlier spring snow melts. These factors create longer, more intense dry seasons, placing additional stress on vegetation and increasing its vulnerability to fire.
• Unfortunately, experts predict that this trend will only worsen as human-induced greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm the planet.
• According to a recent United Nations report, current climate policies will lead to a global temperature rise of more than 3°C by the century’s end, more than double the 1.5°C threshold necessary to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Arctic Tundra: A New Carbon Source After Millennia

GS 3: Environment and Biodiversity: Arctic Tundra

Why is it in the news?

• The Arctic tundra, a frozen and treeless biome that has stored carbon for thousands of years, has now started emitting more carbon than it absorbs.
• According to a recent report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this transformation is driven by increasing wildfires and unusually high temperatures. The Arctic Report Card, an annual assessment of the polar region, highlights this concerning shift.
• This change in the Arctic tundra’s carbon balance has global consequences, accelerating climate change, which is already significantly impacting the world.

How Does the Arctic Tundra Store Carbon?

• In most ecosystems, plants absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. These plants are consumed by animals or decay upon death, with their carbon feeding microorganisms like bacteria and fungi.
• These microbes break down organic matter, releasing CO2 back into the atmosphere and completing the carbon cycle.However, in the Arctic tundra, the cold climate slows down the decomposition of organic matter dramatically.
• Plant and animal remains remain frozen in permafrost—ground that stays frozen for at least two consecutive years. This traps carbon and prevents CO2 from being released back into the atmosphere.
• Scientists estimate that Arctic soils store over 1.6 trillion metric tonnes of carbon—about twice the amount currently present in the atmosphere.

Why is the Arctic Tundra Emitting More Carbon?

• The Arctic tundra’s role as a carbon sink has been disrupted in recent years. According to the Arctic Report Card, the tundra has now become a source of CO2 and methane (CH4), a more potent greenhouse gas.
• The main cause of this shift is the rapid rise in temperatures. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, with annual surface air temperatures in 2024 recorded as the second-warmest since 1900.
• Rising temperatures cause permafrost to thaw, activating microbes in the soil that break down organic matter and release CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere. In addition to rising temperatures, increasing wildfires have further accelerated carbon emissions. The Arctic has seen record-breaking wildfire seasons in recent years.
• Last year experienced the worst wildfire season on record, and 2024 had the second-highest wildfire emissions. Wildfire smoke adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and speeds up permafrost thawing.
• Between 2001 and 2020, the combined effects of warming and wildfires caused the Arctic tundra to release more carbon than its plants could absorb—likely for the first time in thousands of years.

Future Implications and Possible Solutions

• Despite these alarming findings, the report suggests it is still possible to reverse this trend and restore the Arctic tundra’s role as a carbon sink. The solution lies in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.
• According to scientists, the lower levels of climate change would mean reduced emissions from thawing permafrost. He stressed the need for aggressive emissions reductions.
• However, achieving this reversal remains unlikely as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Recent research by the Global Carbon Project indicates that fossil fuel emissions are expected to increase slightly in 2024 compared to 2023.
• Total CO2 emissions, including those from land-use changes like deforestation, are projected to reach 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes the previous year.
• The continued rise in emissions underscores the urgency for global action to mitigate climate change and protect critical ecosystems like the Arctic tundra.

Procedure for Removal of Judges

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Ensuring Judicial Accountability

Why is it in the news?

• Fifty-five MPs of the Rajya Sabha have submitted a motion to the Chairman for the removal of a High Court judge. The motion follows controversial remarks made by the judge during a public event.

What is the Procedure for Removal?

• Articles 124 and 217 of the Constitution lay down the procedure for the removal of judges of the Supreme Court and High Courts. A judge can only be removed by the President on the grounds of ‘proved misbehaviour’ or ‘incapacity’ after a motion is passed in both Houses of Parliament.
• The motion requires a special majority, meaning it must be supported by a majority of the total membership of the House and not less than two-thirds of the members present and voting in the same session.
• The terms ‘proved misbehaviour’ and ‘incapacity’ are not explicitly defined in the Constitution. However, the Supreme Court has clarified in various judgments that misbehaviour can include wilful misconduct, corruption, lack of integrity, or offences involving moral turpitude. Incapacity generally refers to physical or mental conditions preventing a judge from performing their duties.
• The Judges (Inquiry) Act, 1968, further outlines the procedure for removal. A notice of motion for removal must be signed by at least 50 Rajya Sabha members or 100 Lok Sabha members.
• The Chairman or Speaker then has the discretion to admit or refuse the motion after due consultation. If admitted, a three-member committee is formed, consisting of Supreme Court/High Court judges and a distinguished jurist. The committee investigates the charges and submits its findings.
• If the committee absolves the judge, the motion is dropped. However, if the judge is found guilty of misbehaviour or incapacity, the report is taken up by Parliament. Both Houses must pass the motion with a special majority, after which the judge is removed by the President.

What is the Current Issue?

• Justice Yadav recently made controversial, communally-charged remarks during an event organized by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. He reportedly stated that the country would be run according to the wishes of the majority. Such statements have sparked concerns about judicial impartiality.
• The Reinstatement of Values of Judicial Life, adopted by the Supreme Court in 1997 and followed by all High Courts, mandates that judges must uphold the people’s faith in the judiciary’s neutrality. Judges are expected to avoid any actions or statements that may be seen as unbecoming of their constitutional office.
• While the Judges (Inquiry) Bill, 2006, was never passed, it had proposed a definition of misbehaviour to include violations of the judicial code of conduct. The bill also suggested minor disciplinary measures, such as warnings, public or private censure, or temporary withdrawal of judicial work, for misconduct that did not warrant removal.

What is Required?

• The Blackstone’s ratio, a principle of criminal jurisprudence stating that “it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer,” is relevant in the context of judicial removals.
• The stringent process for removal, which requires a special majority in both Houses, has often led to judges remaining in office despite being found guilty of misconduct by an inquiry committee. While this process is essential to safeguard judicial independence, it also makes the removal of judges extremely difficult.
• In the current case, it is unlikely that the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha will admit the motion, especially given that he himself is facing a removal motion.
• Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has issued a notice seeking details of Justice Yadav’s controversial speech. Justice Yadav is expected to appear before the Supreme Court Collegium to explain his statements.

Conclusion

• Judges occupy a high constitutional office that demands impeccable conduct and impartiality. While the current procedure for removal is necessary to protect judicial independence, it is equally important for judges to uphold public trust through their actions and words.
• The ongoing proceedings will be closely watched as they have significant implications for judicial accountability and the larger question of judicial integrity in India.