Economic and Social Costs of Population Decline

GS 2: Society: Population and associated issues

Why is it in the news?

• India is beginning to grapple with the economic and social consequences of low fertility rates, especially in the southern states. Recently, Andhra Pradesh CM expressed concerns about declining birth rates, suggesting legislation to incentivize larger families. Similarly, Tamil Nadu’s CM has voiced concerns.
• While family planning policies in India were historically aimed at controlling population growth, these policies’ success is now resulting in an ageing population, particularly in developed states.

Current Demographic Situation

• Southern states and some smaller northern ones have seen a sharp drop in fertility rates. Data from 2019 to 2021 reveals that Tamil Nadu and West Bengal recorded fertility rates of 1.4, while Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh recorded rates of 1.5.
• In contrast, states like Bihar (3.0), Uttar Pradesh (2.7), and Madhya Pradesh (2.6) have much higher rates. Generally, states with lower fertility rates have developed faster but now face the challenge of an ageing population.
• The UNFPA’s India Ageing report highlights that India’s elderly population share is expected to grow from 10.1% in 2021 to 15% by 2036.
• However, some states will experience this shift more rapidly—Kerala’s elderly population, for instance, is projected to rise from 16.5% in 2021 to 22.8% by 2036, with Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh also experiencing significant increases.

Economic Impact of an Ageing Population

• India’s demographic transition has progressed faster than its socio-economic transformation. Experts explain that the key metric to watch is the old age dependency ratio, representing the number of older people per 100 working-age individuals (18-59 years). A ratio above 15% signals the onset of an ageing crisis.
• In states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, this ratio has already exceeded 15%, meaning they have passed the peak of their demographic dividend—when a young workforce supports fewer dependents. This shift will likely drive up healthcare costs significantly, especially in southern states.
• For example, data from 2017-18 shows that while southern states comprise one-fifth of India’s population, they accounted for 32% of total out-of-pocket expenses on cardiovascular diseases, as per a study.

Impact on Women and Economic Policies

• Proposals to raise fertility rates may have unintended effects, potentially reducing female labour force participation, which could hurt economic growth. Southern leaders argue that while these states contribute substantial tax revenue, they receive a diminishing share of central resources due to their slowing population growth.
• This disparity has led to calls for a re-evaluation of resource distribution formulas to consider population dynamics.

Political Implications and Federal Structure

• Unequal population growth rates could significantly impact India’s federal structure. The current freeze on parliamentary seat distribution will end in 2026, after which a new delimitation exercise is expected to adjust Lok Sabha representation.
• Projections suggest that Uttar Pradesh might gain 12 seats, Bihar 10, and Rajasthan 7, while states with declining populations like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh may lose seats. This shift could affect the balance of power between northern and southern states.

Considering Solutions

• Southern leaders are promoting pro-natalist policies to encourage higher birth rates. However, experts caution that forced or incentivized fertility measures rarely work effectively, as women today prioritize economic independence and refuse to be seen as mere “reproductive machines.”
• They advocate for better work-family policies, such as paid parental leave, childcare support, and employment protections to mitigate the “motherhood penalty.” They argue that states with strong gender equity policies maintain stable fertility rates, as women are more inclined to have children when assured of economic security.
• Expanding the working lifespan is another approach to balance the old age dependency ratio. While the southern states attract many economic migrants, these individuals often remain politically and financially tied to their home states.
• This situation places an additional burden on destination states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which must accommodate migrants’ social security needs without proportional political and financial benefits.

LignoSat: The First Wooden Satellite in Space

GS 3: Science and Technology: Space

Why is it in the news?

• On November 5, the world saw the launch of LignoSat, the first wooden satellite, which aims to test the reliability of timber as a renewable building material for future space exploration.
• Developed by Kyoto University in collaboration with Sumitomo Forestry, the satellite was sent to the International Space Station (ISS) aboard a SpaceX Dragon cargo capsule. After a month, it will be released into orbit, where it will remain for six months, allowing scientists to test the durability of wood in space conditions.

About LignoSat

• LignoSat measures just 4 inches (10 centimetres) on each side and weighs only 900 grams. The satellite’s name is derived from the Latin word for wood and features panels made from magnolia tree wood.
• The wood panels are assembled using a traditional Japanese crafts technique that doesn’t require screws or glue.
• According to a Kyoto University astronaut who has previously flown on the Space Shuttle, emphasized that the ability to use timber— a material that can be sustainably produced— could enable long-term habitation and construction in space.

Testing the Durability of Wood in Space

• LignoSat is designed to test the ability of wood to withstand the harsh conditions of space, where temperatures fluctuate drastically from -100°C to 100°C every 45 minutes, depending on sunlight and darkness.
• Researchers aim to study how the wood reacts to space radiation and its ability to protect semiconductor components on the satellite. Kyoto University scientists believe that wood could replace some metals currently used in space exploration due to its resilience in the space environment.

Wood in Space: A Renewed Concept

• The use of wood in space isn’t entirely new. In the early 1900s, airplanes were made from wood, and even today, cork is used in the outer shells of spacecraft to help them survive re-entry.
• Experts explain that wood, especially in the vacuum of space, is more durable since it doesn’t face the degrading effects of water or oxygen, which would cause rotting or inflammation on Earth.
• LignoSat is a demonstration project aimed at showing that wood can be a viable material for space structures. While the satellite is not entirely made of wood, the magnolia wood panels encase traditional aluminium structures and electronic components. Over the next six months, the satellite’s sensors will monitor how the wood performs in space.

A Renewable Solution for Long-Term Space Exploration

• One of the advantages of using wood for satellites is its potential environmental benefits. Traditional satellites, typically made of aluminium, burn up upon re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, releasing aluminium oxides that can harm the ozone layer.
• As space debris becomes a growing concern, including the massive number of satellites in networks like SpaceX’s Starlink, LignoSat could offer a cleaner alternative. The wooden panels would disintegrate upon re-entry, avoiding the release of pollutants into the atmosphere.

Enhancing Wind Energy Generation in Tamil Nadu

GS 3: Economy: Wind energy 

Why is it in the news?

• Tamil Nadu, a pioneer in wind power generation, has been installing wind turbines since the 1980s and now possess the second-largest installed wind energy capacity in India, with 10,603.5 MW.
• Of the 20,000 turbines in the state, approximately 10,000 are smaller than 1 MW in capacity. The state’s wind potential accounts for nearly 15% of India’s total, with 68.75 GW of the national capacity of 695.51 GW at 120 meters above ground level.
• The leading states for installed wind energy include Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh, which collectively contribute 93.37% of India’s total wind power capacity.

About Repowering and Refurbishing

• Wind turbines more than 15 years old or those with a capacity of less than 2 MW can be either repowered or refurbished. Repowering involves replacing old turbines with newer, higher-capacity models, while refurbishing typically includes upgrading components like turbine blades, height, and gearboxes to increase energy generation.
• Life extension refers to improving the safety and extending the operational life of existing turbines. According to the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE), repowering could add up to 25.4 GW of capacity if turbines under 2 MW are replaced.

Challenges with Repowering and Refurbishing

• Wind energy generators face several challenges when repowering turbines. Many early installations were based on outdated mapping and technologies, with turbines originally smaller than 1 MW and sites requiring specific spacing.
• Over time, wind turbine technology has advanced, and now larger turbines, such as 2 MW models, require more land—3.5 acres for a 120-meter, 2 MW turbine and 5 acres for a 140-meter, 2.5 MW turbine.
• In Tamil Nadu, for instance, the Aralvaimozhi wind site has a current installed capacity of 48 MW with older turbines, but it has the potential to reach 100 MW with modern equipment. However, the necessary infrastructure for these upgrades, such as sub-stations, has not been developed.
• Additionally, turbines installed after 2018 in Tamil Nadu lack energy banking facilities. Under the new policy, repowered turbines are considered new installations, meaning that generators cannot bank the energy generated, which impacts the financial viability of these projects.

Opposition to Tamil Nadu’s Wind Energy Policy

• The Tamil Nadu government’s 2024 wind energy policy, which focuses on repowering and refurbishment, has been met with opposition from wind energy generators. They argue that the policy does not adequately promote wind energy generation and fails to address the financial challenges faced by wind farm operators.
• Critics claim that repowering, under the current policy framework, is not commercially viable. They emphasize that any new policy must consider the practical issues on the ground and provide incentives to help fully harness the state’s wind energy potential.
• Some generators, like a textile mill owner from Coimbatore, have already replaced turbines without government support, but they believe the policy should offer more financial benefits for sustainable energy investments.

The Way Forward

• Tamil Nadu has the highest repowering potential among India’s wind energy states, with over 7,000 MW of installed capacity eligible for replacement or refurbishment.
• Experts suggest that if small turbines are repowered, the contribution of wind energy could increase by 25% during peak wind seasons. Despite previous efforts to replace old turbines, industry experts argue that the new policy needs to offer more support and focus on improving the financial viability of wind energy projects.

Understanding Lightning and Its Hazards

GS 3: Science and Technology: Lightning strike

Why is it in the news?

• Climate change has made lightning strikes more common and deadly globally, with approximately 24,000 deaths each year from such strikes. In India, 2,887 people were killed by lightning in 2022 alone.
• In light of these dangers, there are calls for declaring lightning strikes a natural disaster, enabling survivors to access protection mechanisms. Against this backdrop, lightning rods play an essential role in protecting people by directing lightning away from them.

What is Lightning?

• Lightning is an electrical discharge that occurs between charged particles in a cloud and the ground. Objects can either be electrical conductors or insulators, depending on their ability to transport electrical energy.
• For example, air is typically an electrical insulator, but when subjected to a high voltage (about 3 million V/m), its insulating properties break down, allowing it to conduct a current. Lightning happens when the electrical charge buildup in a cloud surpasses the air’s resistance.

What is a Lightning Rod?

• Lightning rods are specifically designed to attract and safely direct lightning strikes to the ground. When lightning strikes, it follows the path of least resistance, typically toward the nearest object with the highest electric potential.
• Lightning rods are pointy because sharp objects create stronger electric fields. These fields ionize the air near the rod, providing a pathway for the electrical current to flow.
• The rod essentially becomes the first point of contact for the lightning, keeping it from striking other structures or people.

How Does a Lightning Rod Work?

• A lightning rod is connected to a wire that runs through the building and is grounded at the earth’s surface. The idea is that the earth, being an infinite reservoir of lower electric potential, can safely absorb the lightning’s electric charges. The lightning current travels down the rod and through the wire into the ground.
• In some cases, if a large current induces an electrical surge into a connected grid system, engineers use lightning arresters to safely divert the current away from sensitive devices.

Can Lightning Evade a Lightning Rod?

• Lightning can evade a lightning rod under several conditions, such as improper installation (wrong height, angle, or grounding), corroded or damaged rods, or if the rod is too close to other structures.
• Additionally, if an electrical discharge ascends from the ground toward a descending lightning strike, it may bypass the rod. Multiple thunderstorms in the area and flawed rod designs also contribute to this risk.
• Engineers continuously refine lightning rod designs to ensure that lightning prefers them over other nearby structures.

Dangers Posed by Lightning Rods

• While lightning rods are designed to safely conduct lightning strikes into the ground, they pose certain risks. If the conductor bends in a U-shape, the two ends should be far apart to prevent the current from arcing across and shorting the conductor.
• Additionally, the grounding wire must be buried in soil with high electrical conductivity to dissipate the charges efficiently.
• Over time, systems like the concrete-encased electrode, developed in the 1960s by Herbert Ufer, have been used to improve the conductivity of grounding materials. Further, the international standards guide engineers on design limits and safety measures to prevent failures.

Conclusion

• Lightning rods are essential for protecting structures and people from lightning strikes. Proper installation, maintenance, and design are crucial to ensure their effectiveness in safely redirecting lightning to the ground.
• Despite challenges and risks, advancements in technology continue to improve lightning protection systems, making them more reliable and safer for use.

Surge in Mpox Mutations and Human-to-Human Transmission

GS 3: Science and Technology: Mpox

Why is it in the news?

• A new study has revealed that clade Ia of the mpox virus, previously thought to only spread from animals to humans, has evolved to transmit between humans. This discovery has raised concerns as the prevalence of mutations linked to the APOBEC protein family in the virus increases.
• APOBEC proteins, a part of the immune system, introduce random changes to foreign DNA, including viral DNA, as the virus replicates within human cells.

Mpox and Its Evolution

• Since the eradication of smallpox in 1980, mpox has been a virus of concern, with the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a global outbreak of mpox a “public health emergency of international concern” in 2022-2023.
• The virus has two main clades: I and II, each with two subclades—Ia, Ib, IIa, and IIb. Clade IIb caused the 2022 outbreak, while clade Ib has been responsible for infections in Central Africa.
• Clade Ia, which has existed since 1970, was thought to cause isolated, animal-to-human transmissions, primarily in children. Recent findings, however, show evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of clade Ia.

Role of Mutations in Virus Evolution

• Viruses evolve through mutations in their genetic material, a process that occurs when viral polymerases replicate the virus’s DNA or RNA. While mutations can occur randomly, they can also be induced by the immune system’s APOBEC proteins.
• APOBEC forces changes in viral DNA, particularly converting cytosine into thymine, which leads to mutations that can sometimes kill the virus.
• Studies have shown that a significant rise in mutations in circulating mpox viral DNA can be traced to APOBEC activity, suggesting that clade IIb has been circulating through human-to-human transmission since 2016.

Human-to-Human Transmission in Clade Ia

• A recent study has demonstrated that clade Ia viruses now exhibit the same pattern of mutations, indicating human-to-human transmission.
• The research found that 63% of the mutations observed in clade Ia infections were consistent with changes that could only be introduced by APOBEC proteins. This marks a concerning shift for the virus, which was once primarily an animal-originated infection.

Impact on Mpox Vaccination Efforts

• While the emergence of human-to-human transmission in clade Ia is unlikely to alter vaccination strategies in the affected countries, it highlights a growing concern for health officials.
• The mutations in mpox clades can affect how the virus responds to antiviral drugs, and the new evidence of human transmission suggests the virus may adapt in ways that could complicate treatment efforts.
• In the face of limited vaccine doses, African countries continue to rely on targeted vaccination campaigns, hoping to stem the rising number of cases. However, with the evolving nature of the virus, additional challenges may arise in managing the outbreak effectively.