AMIGOS IAS Daily Current Affairs (7^th Sept 2024)

Why Global weather models got La Niña predictions wrong

GS 1: Geography: La Niña/El Niño

Why is it in the news?

• La Niña, a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), generally enhances rainfall during the southwest monsoon in India. However, it is now too late for La Niña to significantly impact this season.
• India recorded nearly 16% surplus rainfall in August, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted 109% “above normal” rainfall for September.
• This year, global agencies’ predictions for La Niña have been notably inaccurate, with a delay in its onset now apparent. The impact of this delay on upcoming months and the reasons behind the incorrect predictions are important to consider.

Understanding La Niña and ENSO

• La Niña, which translates to “The Little Girl” in Spanish, is a phase of ENSO—a key driver of global climate variability.
• ENSO is characterized by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which disrupt global atmospheric circulation and influence worldwide weather.
• ENSO cycles between three phases: warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral.

1) During neutral conditions, the eastern Pacific is cooler than the western Pacific due to trade winds pushing warmer water westward.

2) In the El Niño phase, these trade winds weaken, leading to warmer waters in the eastern Pacific.

3) Conversely, in the La Niña phase, trade winds strengthen, pushing more water to the western Pacific.

The Impact of La Niña on Indian Monsoon

• In India, El Niño typically leads to reduced monsoon rainfall, while La Niña is associated with enhanced monsoon activity. The previous El Niño event lasted from June 2023 to May 2024, and before that, La Niña persisted from 2020 to 2023.
• Moreover, the effects of anthropogenic climate change have intensified the impacts of both El Niño and La Niña, contributing to extreme weather events such as high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and droughts.

Errors in La Niña predictions

• Global weather models initially predicted that La Niña conditions would emerge around July, following one of the strongest El Niño events of all time, which ended in June. By mid-July, it became clear that La Niña’s onset would be delayed.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially forecasted a transition from neutral to La Niña conditions between August and October, while Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) maintained a La Niña ‘watch,’ predicting cooler sea surface temperatures in the latter part of the year.
• The IMD had also anticipated that La Niña would emerge during the latter part of the monsoon season, forecasting enhanced rainfall for August and September based on this expectation.

Reasons behind predictive failures

• The failure of initial predictions can be attributed to several factors. Weak La Niña phases are harder to predict compared to stronger ones, as weather models are more adept at detecting strong ENSO phases.
• Additionally, various atmospheric factors, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—an eastward moving band of rain-bearing winds and clouds—complicate predictions.
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue to dominate the Pacific Ocean, with the earliest signs of La Niña now expected by late September or early October, peaking in November and potentially lasting through the northern hemisphere winter.

Implications of the delay for India’s Monsoon

• The delay in La Niña’s onset has affected India’s monsoon season. Typically, La Niña enhances the southwest monsoon, but since the monsoon is nearing its end and La Niña has not yet emerged, it will have no direct impact on current rainfall patterns.
• Nonetheless, other factors also influence monsoon rainfall, and a delayed La Niña does not necessarily indicate a poor monsoon season. India has received 8% more rainfall than normal since June, with August showing a 16% surplus and September forecasted to be 109% above normal.
• However, there are regional disparities, with eastern, northeastern, northern, and northwestern states experiencing deficient rainfall, while central and southern regions have seen more than average precipitation.

Future Outlook and Potential Impacts

• If La Niña begins by late September or October, it could influence the northeast monsoon season, which runs from October to December and affects regions like Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, southern interior Karnataka, and Kerala.
• Although La Niña typically does not favour northeast monsoon rainfall, exceptions have occurred in the past. Since these regions have already received normal or surplus rainfall during the southwest monsoon, a potential reduction later in the year may not be concerning.
• Additionally, La Niña years often see increased cyclone activity in the north Indian Ocean, with storms potentially being more intense and longer-lasting. This will be closely monitored by meteorologists and officials.
• Lastly, past La Niña years have sometimes brought colder winters, a trend that might continue.

Fiscal Deficit as the norm for Fiscal Prudence

GS 3: Economy: Regulating Fiscal Deficit

Context

• Excessive government expenditures relative to revenue can create economic challenges. During the 1980s, India’s increasing fiscal deficit and government debt resulted in a tough balance of payments situation and elevated interest payments relative to revenue.
• This scenario compelled the government to increasingly borrow to fund developmental projects.

A Perspective

• The 2024-25 Union Budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26, down from 4.9% in 2024-25.
• However, the Budget does not specify a clear path for further debt reduction, effectively abandoning the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) 2018 targets of 40% for central government debt and 60% for combined government debt.
• With nominal GDP growth projected at 10%-11%, a fiscal deficit of 4.5% could result in a debt-GDP ratio of 48% by 2048-49. If state governments also relax their Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) and only focus on a decreasing debt-GSDP ratio, the combined fiscal deficit could reach 7.5% of GDP, potentially limiting private sector investment unless the current account deficit is increased.
• The Twelfth Finance Commission suggested that with household savings at 10% of GDP and a current account deficit of 1.5%, a fiscal deficit of up to 6% could be sustainable.
• However, household savings have fallen to 5.3% of GDP in 2022-23, and with a net foreign capital inflow of about 2%, the fiscal deficits of central and state governments could fully absorb the available investible surplus. Therefore, any increase in fiscal deficit would require a rise in household savings.
• To manage sustainable debt and fiscal deficits, there is a direct relationship between the fiscal deficit and the debt-GDP ratio. Reducing the debt-GDP ratio requires controlling the fiscal deficit-GDP ratio.
• India’s fiscal responsibility framework, established after 2003, sets targets for debt-GDP/GSDP and fiscal deficit-GDP/GSDP ratios. High debt ratios lead to high interest payments, reducing funds for non-interest expenditures.
• The ratio of interest payments to revenue receipts, which had decreased to 35% in 2016-17, has increased to an average of 38.4% from 2021-22 to 2023-24, with higher averages when including all transfers.
• Internationally, countries with higher debt-GDP ratios, such as Japan, the UK, and the US, have lower interest payments to revenue receipts compared to India, which averaged 24% for interest payments and 49% for the central government from 2015-16 to 2019-20.
• Despite recent discussions focusing on debt-GDP ratios, India lacks specific targets and paths for managing this ratio. The rapid increase in the debt-GDP ratio during the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the challenge of returning to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the asymmetric nature of debt adjustments.
• Given the lower household savings, it is prudent for the central government to adhere to a 3% fiscal deficit limit and establish a clear roadmap for achieving this goal. Relaxing this rule could lead to fiscal imprudence.

New treatment for Multidrug-Resistant TB approved

GS 3: Science and Technology: Treating MDR-TB

About the news

• The Union Health Ministry approved a new treatment regimen for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in India.
• The newly introduced BPaLM regimen, which includes four drugs—Bedaquiline, Pretomanid, Linezolid, and Moxifloxacin—has been recognized as a safer, more effective, and faster treatment option compared to previous MDR-TB therapies.
• This advancement is part of India’s broader goal to eliminate tuberculosis (TB) by 2025, ahead of the global deadline set under the sustainable development goals.
• Under the National TB Elimination Programme, the Ministry has now incorporated the BPaLM regimen as a novel treatment approach for MDR-TB.
• Pretomanid, a new anti-TB drug included in this regimen, had already been approved for use in India by the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation.
• The BPaLM regimen offers a significant improvement over traditional treatments, which can extend up to 20 months and are often associated with severe side effects. In contrast, the BPaLM regimen can effectively cure drug-resistant TB within just six months and with a high success rate.
• This new regimen will benefit India’s 75,000 drug-resistant TB patients by reducing treatment duration and overall costs.

India-Brunei: Bilateral Ties elevated to Enhanced Partnership

GS 2: International Relations: India-Brunei

Why is it in the news?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Brunei marked a significant advancement in India-Brunei relations, commemorating 40 years of diplomatic ties.
• This visit was notable as it was the first bilateral trip by an Indian Prime Minister to Brunei, underscoring Brunei’s strategic importance to India in Southeast Asia.

Key takeaways of the visit

Space Collaboration:

• A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed for Telemetry, Tracking, and Telecommand Station operations.
• This partnership will support India’s space ambitions by enabling Brunei to host essential infrastructure for ISRO’s satellite and launch vehicle activities.

Economic Cooperation:

• The leaders emphasized expanding trade in technology, agriculture, and finance. They also addressed food security and shared best practices in agriculture.

Direct Flight Connection:

• A new direct flight between Bandar Seri Begawan and Chennai was announced, aimed at enhancing people-to-people exchanges, trade, and tourism.

Defense and Security:

• The visit included discussions on strengthening defense ties, with a focus on joint naval exercises and port visits.
• Both nations highlighted the importance of maritime cooperation and adherence to international law in the Indo-Pacific region.

Regional Cooperation:

• India and Brunei reaffirmed their commitment to the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and jointly condemned terrorism, advocating for regional stability.

Significance

• Brunei is pivotal to India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, especially concerning maritime security and regional stability.
• The visit marks a transition to an ‘Enhanced Partnership,’ emphasizing collaborative efforts in defense, space technology, and cultural exchange.
• Brunei is a key ally in India’s Act East Policy, playing a significant role in advancing India’s engagement with Southeast Asia, particularly through Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).