Why is it in the news?

• On September 26, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a significant offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and Bahri, reigniting a conflict that had quieted for months.
• As of October 1, the UN reports over 20,000 deaths and approximately 10.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• All ceasefire efforts and peace talks have failed, with the latest offensive occurring just ahead of U.S.-led ceasefire discussions during the UN General Assembly.

Key Actors

• The civil war involves two main factions: the SAF, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, headed by Hamdan Dagalo.
• Initially rooted in a power struggle in Khartoum, the conflict has now spread to Omdurman, Port Sudan, El Fasher, and the Darfur and Kordofan states.
• While the RSF has gained ground in several areas, the SAF has conducted airstrikes and secured pockets around Khartoum. Further, the humanitarian crisis is worsening, especially in Darfur, where severe restrictions on aid and healthcare persist.
• Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including sexual violence, with 25.6 million people now facing food insecurity.

Reasons for Ongoing Conflict

• The war continues largely due to the determination of both parties to consolidate their power. The SAF claims legitimacy as the governing body, while the RSF, having gained territory, opposes the SAF’s international representation.
• Despite a UN arms embargo in place since 2004, the flow of weapons remains unimpeded, with both factions employing advanced weaponry sourced from countries like China, Iran, Russia, Serbia, and the UAE.
• The conflict has further evolved into an ethnic struggle, involving various regional militias that have taken sides.

External Support

• The SAF has accused the UAE and Russia’s Wagner Group of supporting the RSF, although both deny any direct military involvement.
• Allegations suggest that the Wagner Group facilitates arms supplies from the UAE to the RSF, while Russia has been supplying weapons to the SAF.
• This external backing diminishes the motivation for either side to pursue a resolution to the conflict.

Attempts at Peace Talks

• Nine rounds of ceasefire attempts led by the S. and Saudi Arabia have failed, with the most recent talks in Geneva seeing neither party attend. The SAF has blamed the RSF for non-compliance.
• Although both sides claim to be open to negotiations, their lack of commitment indicates a desire to gain military advantage during any ceasefire. Further, limited international media coverage and restricted access for organizations complicate effective mediation efforts.

Regional Implications

• The conflict has led to over two million people fleeing to neighbouring countries, creating overcrowded refugee camps and raising concerns in Europe about potential migration.
• Ethnic violence has also increased along the borders of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, resulting in significant casualties.
• Further, frequent clashes over agricultural land in border regions have jeopardized an oil pipeline from South Sudan to the Red Sea.

Conclusion

• The complexity of the war, compounded by multiple actors and its geographical spread, poses significant challenges for international mediation.
• The repeated failures of ceasefire attempts indicate a need to reevaluate international strategies. While the SAF has made territorial gains, defeating the RSF remains a challenging prospect, and a compromise appears unlikely.
• The conflict is expected to continue, raising fears of a divided Sudan reminiscent of Libya’s situation. As global attention shifts to other crises, the plight of Sudanese civilians may persist on the sidelines.