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Seasonal Outlook for Hot weather season

Why is it in the news?

  • The IMD issued an updated Seasonal outlook for the hot weather season (April to June) 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • Above-normal temperatures are expected over most parts of the country during this period.
  • Above normal heatwave days are likely to occur over most parts of south peninsula, central India, east India, and plains of northwest India during April to June.
  • The El Ni帽o phenomenon is expected to weaken during the upcoming season and eventually turn ‘neutral’. Some models suggest the possibility of La Ni帽a conditions developing during the monsoon, potentially intensifying rainfall across South Asia, particularly in India鈥檚 northwest and Bangladesh.

Issues and Concerns

  • Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses, affect agricultural output, cause water scarcity, increase energy demand, and impact ecosystems and air quality.
  • India is facing challenges in meeting its power demand, which increases significantly during the summer season. Hydroelectric output has decreased, leading to a greater dependence on coal, contradicting India’s commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions intensity.
Heat Wave

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 Qualitatively, a heat wave is a condition of air temperature that poses a threat to human health when exposed.

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 Quantitatively, it’s defined based on temperature thresholds or deviations from normal temperatures.

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 Heat waves in India are typically experienced between March and June, peaking in May.

Criteria for Declaration by IMD

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 The IMD declares a heat wave if the maximum temperature reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius in plains and 30 degrees Celsius in hilly regions, with a departure of around 4.5-6.4 degrees Celsius from the normal maximum temperature.

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 A heat wave can also be declared if the actual maximum temperature exceeds 45 degrees Celsius, with a ‘severe heat wave’ declared if it surpasses 47 degrees Celsius.

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 An agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology.

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 It’s one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organization.

路聽聽聽聽聽聽 IMD releases long-range forecasts in two stages, typically in April and June.

 

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