Why is it in the news?

• In a world increasingly affected by climate change and weather uncertainties, localized forecasting aims to enhance agricultural livelihoods and improve rural preparedness against natural disasters.
• A significant development in this area is the introduction of five-day weather forecasts, updated hourly, at the gram panchayat level, marking a major step toward localized forecasting across India.

About the Initiative

• The Gram Panchayat-Level Weather Forecasting initiative is a collaborative program between the Panchayati Raj Ministry, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
• According to the Panchayati Raj Ministry, the initiative aims to empower rural communities and enhance disaster preparedness at the grassroots level, benefiting farmers and villagers nationwide.
• It seeks to strengthen grassroots governance and promote sustainable agricultural practices, making rural populations more climate-resilient and better equipped to address environmental challenges.

Forecast Availability

• Hourly forecasts will be accessible through the e-GramSwaraj and Gram Manchitra portals, as well as the Meri Panchayat app.
• The e-GramSwaraj platform is already operational, providing users with data on current temperature, wind speed, cloud cover (in percentage), rainfall, and relative humidity at the gram panchayat level.
• Additionally, five-day forecasts will include minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall predictions, cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed, and an overall weather outlook.

Public Benefits

• The most immediate beneficiaries of this initiative will be farmers, who can utilize the information to plan critical activities such as sowing, irrigation, and harvesting.
• The Panchayati Raj Ministry highlighted the importance of micro-forecasts amid intensifying climate change. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, localized weather forecasting will be a vital tool for safeguarding agricultural livelihoods and enhancing rural preparedness against natural disasters.
• Daily updates on temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and cloud cover will empower gram panchayats to make informed agricultural decisions.

Importance of Localized Forecasting

• Despite advancements in weather forecasting, inherent uncertainties remain. More precise forecasts—whether regarding spatial spread or time windows for events—often carry greater uncertainty, particularly for sudden localized events like cloudbursts.
• Localized forecasts enable small farming communities to plan economic activities with greater confidence. With 55 lakh village panchayats across India, each housing a few thousand residents on average, localized forecasting can have a substantial impact.
• The IMD has developed this localized forecasting system using gram panchayat boundary data provided by the Panchayati Raj Ministry.
• Currently, weather forecasts are available at district and block levels, with the IMD narrowing its forecasting capabilities to predict events over a 12 km x 12 km area, experimenting with 3 km x 3 km grids, and ultimately aiming for hyper-local forecasts for 1 km x 1 km areas.