Introduction

The last census in India was conducted in 2011, and the next one has been postponed indefinitely since 2021. The census is crucial for identifying beneficiaries of welfare schemes, such as building schools for tribal children and the Public Distribution System (PDS). Without updated census data, the fair distribution of resources and effective implementation of government programs are severely impacted.

The Global Context

• The government has repeatedly said, including in Parliament, that Census 2021 had to be postponed due to the pandemic.
• However, India is one of only 44 out of 233 countries that have not conducted their latest census.
• Of the 189 nations (81%) that managed to conduct their latest rounds, 143 did so after March 2020, when COVID-19 began to disrupt global activities.
• India is now grouped with conflict-ridden countries like Ukraine, Yemen, Syria, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and several sub-Saharan African nations.

The Population and Census Discrepancy

• Out of 233 countries analyzed for their last census, India and Nigeria are the only two among the ten most populous countries that have not conducted a census recently.
• China, the U.S., and Indonesia conducted their latest censuses in 2020, while Pakistan conducted its census in March 2023.
• Among BRICS nations, India is the only country that has not conducted a census recently. Brazil conducted its census in August 2022, China in November 2020, South Africa in February 2022, and Russia in October 2021, all during or after the pandemic.
• Additionally, neighboring countries like Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan, and Bangladesh have all conducted their censuses.

The Need for a Census

• An excerpt from The Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, published in 2011, underscores the need for a census.
• India is a welfare State. All these welfare schemes require information at the grassroots level. Census is the only source of primary data at village, town, and ward level.
• The delay in conducting the census has significant repercussions for various surveys and schemes.

Surveys and Schemes Affected by the Delay

• Many surveys rely on census data for their samples, and welfare schemes need updated population figures to identify beneficiaries.
• For instance, the Consumption Survey 2022-23, which tracks spending habits and living standards, used the 2011 census data for its sampling.
• The National Family Health Survey 2019-21, which highlights districts where health services are inadequate, also relied on 2011 figures.
• Schemes like the National Food Security Act, 2013 which identifies beneficiaries entitled to receive subsidized food grains, are still being implemented using 2011 figures.
• Economists Jean Drèze, Reetika Khera, and Meghana Mungikar estimate that at least 100 million people have been excluded from this scheme because coverage is based on outdated census data.
• Even smaller schemes like the Eklavya Model Residential School (EMRS), which aims to provide quality education for ST children, are affected.
• In 2022, every block with more than 50% of the ST population was targeted to have an EMRS school. As this calculation was done based on 2011 data, many blocks that fit the criteria in 2022 may have missed out.
• Conversely, blocks that met the criteria earlier but did not in 2022 will get an EMRS school they may no longer need.

Conclusion

The delay in conducting the census has far-reaching consequences for India’s welfare programs and the equitable distribution of resources. The census is an essential tool for gathering accurate demographic data, which is crucial for the effective implementation of government schemes. As India continues to delay this vital process, millions of citizens are left at a disadvantage, excluded from programs designed to support them. It is imperative that the government prioritizes the completion of the census to ensure that all Indians benefit from the country’s welfare state.