Emergency Martial Law in South Korea

GS 2: International Relations: Conflict in S. Korea

Why is it in the news?

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared “emergency martial law” during an unannounced television address on December 3, 2024. He accused the opposition of sympathizing with North Korea and engaging in anti-state activities that have paralyzed governance.
• Yoon stated his intention to “rebuild and protect the free Republic of Korea” and eliminate anti-state forces, requesting public tolerance for the inconveniences this move might cause.

What Martial Law Entails

• Martial law involves replacing civilian government with military rule and suspending civilian legal processes in favour of military authority. Civil liberties such as freedom of speech, assembly, and press may also be restricted during this period.
• Article 77 of South Korea’s Constitution allows the President to proclaim martial law in cases of war, armed conflict, or other national emergencies. It further permits extraordinary measures affecting warrants, civil liberties, and the powers of the judiciary and executive branches, as prescribed by law.
• The military, under martial law, can ban political activities and take control of media and publications. Reports indicate that MPs are currently barred from entering the National Assembly in Seoul.
• This is the 17th instance of martial law in South Korea since its establishment, the last being in 1980. However, Yoon did not specify the measures to be enforced during the current declaration.

Reasons Behind the Declaration

• Yoon’s declaration follows political and personal crises. The opposition’s landslide victory in the recent National Assembly elections has rendered him a “lame duck” president, unable to pass laws and forced to veto opposition bills.
• His declining approval ratings have been exacerbated by scandals involving his wife, who faces allegations of stock manipulation and accepting luxury gifts.
• Additionally, tensions over next year’s budget and the opposition’s attempt to impeach three prosecutors investigating Lee Jae-myung, a prominent political rival, have added to the turmoil. Analysts describe Yoon’s decision as a “nuclear option” amid these mounting challenges.

Political and Public Reactions

• Yoon’s move has drawn sharp criticism across the political spectrum, including from his own People Power Party.
• Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung warned that martial law would devastate South Korea’s economy and urged citizens to gather at the National Assembly. People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon has condemned the decision and vowed to oppose it.
• South Korean law allows the National Assembly to demand the repeal of martial law with a majority vote, but access restrictions on lawmakers raise uncertainty about how such a vote will proceed.
• Meanwhile, public response has been largely marked by confusion and disbelief, with daily life appearing unchanged for now.

New Phase of War in Syria

GS 2: International Relations: Civil War in Syria

Why is it in the news?

• On November 27, Syria’s “Military Opposition Command” launched a significant offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.
• The rebels quickly captured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and expanded their operations in Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama governorates.
• Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran, pledged support, with Syrian and Russian warplanes targeting rebel-held territories in northwestern Syria. While the civil war seemed dormant following a 2020 ceasefire, frequent clashes have kept tensions alive, and the war has now reignited.

Key Rebel Groups Leading the Offensive

The Syrian rebel coalition is diverse, but three groups are pivotal in the current offensive:

1) Hayat Tahrir al-Shaam (HTS)

• The HTS, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has evolved from the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra into a localized force focused on the Levant.
• After breaking from al-Qaeda in 2016, it merged with other factions in 2017 to form HTS, which now balances between jihadist terrorism and separatist militancy.
• Though designated as a terror group by the U.S. in 2018, HTS leader Jolani has not been a direct U.S. target since later that year.

2) Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

• Representing Kurdish militias, the SDF controls large areas in northeastern Syria, where it has governed autonomously since 2012. Its principal enemy has been ISIS, but it has also clashed with Assad’s forces and Turkey-backed militias.
• Despite HTS assurances, tensions persist with the Kurds, who are now defending against multiple fronts with limited U.S. support since 2018.

3) Syrian National Army (SNA)

• Originating from the Free Syrian Army in 2011, the SNA is backed by Turkey and opposes both Assad and the Kurdish SDF. The SNA and HTS are collaborating in this offensive under the “Military Operations Command” formed in 2019.

External Actors Supporting the Rebels

• Turkey plays a significant role in the conflict, controlling northern Syria and backing the rebels as part of its strategy to counter Kurdish forces and Assad’s regime. Ankara has viewed Kurdish militias as terrorist threats and has maintained a military buffer zone in northern Syria since 2016.
• The U.S. has largely refrained from interfering, focusing instead on limiting Assad’s support from Moscow and Tehran. With Russia and Iran preoccupied by other conflicts, Turkey has capitalized on this moment to escalate its influence in Syria.

Reasons for the Renewed Conflict

• Global conflicts have created opportunities for Syria’s insurgency to regain momentum. Russia’s military resources are strained by the war in Ukraine, reducing its support for Assad.
• Simultaneously, Hezbollah, a key Iran-backed ally of Assad, has been weakened by Israel’s campaigns in Lebanon, creating a power vacuum. The absence of Hezbollah, which was instrumental in Assad’s earlier victories, has emboldened the rebels to strike now.

Implications for Assad

• While Assad was celebrated as the victor of Syria’s civil war and readmitted to the Arab League in 2023, his control was never absolute. Northern Syria remains under Turkish influence, and rebel forces continue to pose threats.
• Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while wary of instability, are also cautious of Turkey’s ambitions. India, historically supportive of Assad and Russia’s involvement in Syria, continues to back stability in the region, as reflected in recent diplomatic engagements.

India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes

GS 3: Economy: Boosting domestic manufacturing

Why is it in the news?

• Out of 14 sectors under the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, six—including textiles, solar modules, IT hardware, automobiles, advanced chemical cells (ACC), and specialty steel—are seeing slower progress in employment generation.
• While these sectors lag behind their targets, others like food processing and mobile phone manufacturing are progressing as planned.
• Despite these challenges, the government remains focused on boosting domestic manufacturing and generating substantial job opportunities.

Government’s Strategy to Maximize Impact

• The government views PLI schemes as critical for enhancing India’s position in global supply chains and creating both direct and indirect jobs. However, the full employment impact will be realized once supply chains are established and benefits reach smaller suppliers.
• Positive outcomes have already been observed in mobile manufacturing and food processing, and experts suggest evaluating employment results after the schemes reach a critical scale.
• A Crisil report (February 2024) estimated that the PLI schemes could drive industrial capital expenditure of Rs 3-3.5 lakh crore, accounting for 8-10% of total capex in key industrial sectors over the next 3-4 years.

Challenges and Early Successes

• The industries under PLI schemes have faced challenges such as stringent eligibility norms, reliance on Chinese machinery and technicians, and import tariffs.
• Additionally, developing domestic industries in sectors where India had little prior presence poses a significant challenge for timely employment generation. For instance, schemes like solar modules and ACC allow for commissioning periods of 1.5 to 3 years, which could delay job creation.
• However, sectors like mobile phone manufacturing have experienced early successes. Before the PLI scheme, India was a net importer of smartphones, but with companies like Apple ramping up local assembly, nearly all smartphones sold in India are now domestically produced, with exports reaching $15 billion in 2023-24.
• The government anticipates that this initial support to large companies will stimulate broader supply chains and create job opportunities in ancillary industries.

Trickling Down Benefits to the Supply Chain

• The government’s strategy involves providing initial support to larger enterprises, which will benefit the entire supply chain, even for companies not directly receiving incentives. For example, Apple’s supplier list in 2023 included 14 Indian companies, a significant increase from zero before Apple began assembling iPhones in India.
• This trickle-down effect is expected to strengthen India’s domestic manufacturing ecosystem and support job creation. The main objective of the PLI schemes is to create a critical mass in various sectors, ensuring that industries remain globally competitive even after incentives are phased out.
• However, critics argue that the schemes resemble subsidies and may not foster long-term competitiveness without continued support. Despite these concerns, the government remains committed to nurturing these sectors to ensure their sustainability.

Conclusion

• The government is actively reviewing the progress of the PLI schemes, particularly in sectors like textiles, ACC, solar modules, and automobiles, where progress has been slower.
• The IT hardware scheme has already been upgraded with a higher budget, and discussions are underway to renew other schemes, such as those for drones.
• Additionally, the government is considering adjustments to eligibility criteria, particularly for textiles, to enhance the effectiveness of the programs.

Low Representation of Women in CAPFs

GS 2: Society: Women empowerment

Why is it in the news?

• Minister of State for Home Affairs informed Lok Sabha that the number of women in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) nearly tripled from 2014 to 2024.
• The CAPFs, under the Union Home Ministry, include seven forces: the Assam Rifles, Border Security Force (BSF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), and the National Security Guard (NSG) special task force.
• Despite this growth, concerns remain about their current representation and efforts to increase women’s numbers in state and Union Territory police forces.

Current Strength of Women in CAPFs

• Women make up only 4.4% of the 9.48 lakh personnel in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), including the Assam Rifles. Among these, the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) has the highest representation, with women constituting 7.02% of its 1.51 lakh-strong force.
• The representation in other forces is lower: 4.43% in the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), 4.41% in the Border Security Force (BSF), 4.05% in the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), 4.01% in the Assam Rifles, and 3.38% in the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF).

Efforts to Increase Women’s Representation

• In 2016, the government reserved a third of constable-level positions in the CRPF and CISF for women and allocated 14-15% reservations in border-guarding forces like the BSF, SSB, and ITBP. However, recruitment did not keep pace with this policy.
• By 2022, women constituted only 3.68% of CAPF personnel, prompting criticism from the Parliamentary Committee on Home Affairs. The committee highlighted the slow progress and urged phase-wise recruitment drives, especially in the CISF and CRPF, to increase women’s participation.

Recommendations by Parliamentary Committees

• In its 2022 report, the Home Affairs Committee called for measures to create a conducive work environment, particularly at border outposts, to encourage more women to join CAPFs. It also recommended identifying barriers to women’s recruitment and finding practical solutions.
• In 2023, another committee suggested “soft postings” for women to address challenges like difficult terrains and strenuous working conditions, except in extreme situations such as war or rebellion.

Government Initiatives and Benefits

• To attract women candidates, the government has implemented several measures, including application fee waivers and relaxed physical tests for women compared to men. Women personnel are also entitled to central government benefits like maternity and child care leave.
• Facilities such as creches and daycare centres have been set up, and committees have been established to address sexual harassment complaints. Further, the government also emphasized equal career progression opportunities for women in CAPFs alongside their male counterparts.

Conclusion

• Despite these efforts, the representation of women remains low. Parliamentary committees have urged the government to expedite recruitment drives and address systemic challenges.

The Utility of Caste Census

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Debate over Caste Census

Why is it in the news?

• The demand for a caste Census has become a politically charged issue, with support from opposition leaders, NGOs, and even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
• Advocates argue that a caste Census would accurately determine population sizes of various castes, enabling proportional distribution of government jobs, land, and wealth. However, closer scrutiny reveals the impracticality of such an exercise, especially regarding individual caste-based reservations.

Historical Background of Caste Census

• India’s caste Census has roots in the late 19th century, beginning with the 1871-72 Census. This exercise attempted to classify groups across major regions like the North-Western Provinces (NWP), Central Provinces (CP), Bengal, and Madras.
• Arbitrary classifications led to inconsistent sets, such as “servants and labourers” in CP and “mixed castes” in Madras. W. Chichele Plowden, the 1881 Census report preparer, criticized the process as confusing and urged against repeating it.
• The 1931 Census identified 4,147 castes, further highlighting inconsistencies as groups claimed different identities across regions. These historical challenges persist, as seen in the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011, which identified 46.7 lakh castes/sub-castes and 8.2 crore acknowledged errors.

Challenges in Data Accuracy

• Upward Caste Mobility Claims: Individuals often report higher-status castes for prestige. During the colonial era, some communities shifted their reported varna category over time. For example, the Sonar caste identified as Kshatriya, Rajput, Brahmin, or Vaishya across different periods in the same region.
• Downward Caste Mobility Claims: Post-independence, some individuals claimed lower-caste status to access reservation benefits. This trend includes upper castes seeking OBC or ST status for quotas.
• Caste Misclassification: Similar-sounding surnames lead to errors. For instance, ‘Dhanak’ and ‘Dhanka’ are SC and ST categories in Rajasthan, while Bengal’s ‘Sen’ (upper caste) contrasts with ‘Sain’ (OBC). Enumerators’ discomfort in discussing caste or assumptions based on surnames further exacerbate inaccuracies.

The Pitfalls of Proportional Representation

• Proportional representation in reservations appears equitable but is impractical. Reserved posts for categories like OBCs (27%), SCs (15%), STs (7.5%), and EWS (10%) are allocated proportionally.
• However, India’s population distribution—spread across approximately 6,000 castes—makes individual caste-based proportional reservations unfeasible.
• For instance, a caste with 10,000 members (0.0007% of the population) would require at least 1,40,845 positions to ensure one reserved vacancy. Considering the UPSC, which advertises around 1,000 vacancies annually, it would take 141 years for this caste to secure a single post.
• With SECC 2011 reporting 46.7 lakh castes, this timeline stretches to over 7,000 years for the smallest caste groups.

Conclusion

• Implementing caste-based proportional representation at the individual level disproportionately excludes smaller caste groups, rendering the system regressive.
• The logistical challenges, coupled with data inaccuracies and misclassifications, make the caste Census a futile exercise rather than a tool for equitable representation.

Collapse of Global Plastic Treaty Talks

GS 3: Environment and Biodiversity: Regulating Plastic Production 

Why is it in the news?

• The week-long negotiations in Busan, South Korea, aimed at curbing plastic pollution, ended without a legally binding treaty due to disagreements on regulating plastic production.
• This marked the fifth and final round of talks since March 2022, when the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) initiated efforts to develop a treaty by the end of 2024. While a treaty was not finalized, discussions on the draft text will continue into 2025.

Reasons for Failure

• The talks faltered over disagreements on production cap goals and eliminating specific plastic chemicals and products. A coalition of over 100 nations, including African, Latin American countries, and most of the European Union, pushed for these provisions.
• However, opposition came from a group of “like-minded countries,” including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, and Iran, which argued that production cuts exceeded the 2022 mandate to end plastic pollution.
• Kuwait criticized the inclusion of production caps, claiming they advanced trade restrictions and economic agendas under the guise of environmental action. India and China supported this stance.

Provisions in the Draft Text

• The draft treaty text showcased areas of consensus and contention. It proposed bans on open dumping and burning for sustainable waste management and offered clear definitions of plastics and plastic products.
• However, contentious terms like microplastics, nanoplastics, primary plastic polymers, and recycling remained undefined.
• Despite resistance from Arab nations, the draft included options for a future goal to reduce plastic and referenced single-use and short-lived plastics. This text will form the basis for further discussions in 2025.

India’s Position

• India emphasized differentiated responsibilities for addressing plastic pollution, safeguarding the developmental rights of countries, and ensuring financial and technical assistance for managing plastic waste.
• During the opening plenary, India stressed that any treaty must support developing countries through funding and technology transfer. India opposed articles related to “supply” and argued that production caps for plastics and primary polymers were ill-defined and risked limiting development.
• It contended that primary polymer production is not directly linked to pollution and rejected targets for production or fees on primary polymer production.

China Bans Rare Mineral Exports to the US

GS 2: International Relations: China-U.S. Trade Tensions

Why is it in the news?

• On December 3, 2024, China announced a ban on the export of certain rare minerals to the United States, marking a new escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between the two global economic giants.
• This move came one day after the Biden administration imposed restrictions on specific types of chips and machinery, adding over 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list. This ban is also seen as China’s response to President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods in the US.

Rare Minerals Affected by the Ban

• The minerals affected by China’s export ban include gallium, germanium, and antimony. Gallium is a soft, silvery-white metal with a low melting point, germanium is a brittle, greyish-white metalloid, and antimony is a hard, brittle silvery metalloid.
• These materials are crucial for various industries, including defense and technology, and their strategic importance has made them key targets in the trade dispute.

Importance of the Banned Minerals

• Gallium, germanium, and antimony are vital for modern technology, particularly in semiconductors, defense systems, and renewable energy.
• Germanium is critical in low-carbon technologies like solar cells and semiconductor wafers. Gallium, when combined with arsenic, creates semiconductors that operate at higher frequencies and are heat resistant, making them essential for advanced electronics.
• Antimony plays a significant role in defense applications, such as in the production of bullets and weaponry. These minerals are integral to modern technology, underscoring their importance in the ongoing geopolitical and economic conflict.

Reasons Behind China’s Export Ban

• China’s official stance for banning the export of gallium, germanium, and antimony is based on national security concerns. However, experts suggest that the move is a direct countermeasure against the recent US trade actions, including Biden’s semiconductor restrictions and Trump’s tariff threats.
• China’s control over the production of these critical minerals—producing 60% of the world’s germanium and 80% of gallium—gives it significant leverage in global technology markets, and it is using this power to challenge the US.

Conclusion

• While the export ban is a strategic move, it could backfire, as it did during China’s temporary suspension of rare earth exports to Japan in 2010. In response to that move, Japan worked with Australia to develop an alternative rare earth metals supplier, Lynas.
• This history suggests that other countries could find ways to circumvent China’s control over these critical minerals, potentially weakening China’s position in the global market.

Why Addressing Lower Fertility Rates Isn’t the Solution to the Delimitation Crisis

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Population issues and Delimitation Crisis

Why is it in the news?

• Population issues are once again at the forefront, with discussions around the upcoming Census and potential delimitation of Parliamentary seats in 2025.
• Concerns have been raised by the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu about the possibility of reduced parliamentary representation for their states, prompting them to suggest encouraging people to have more children.
• However, the reduction in fertility rates should not be seen as a disadvantage but rather as a success that should be celebrated and further encouraged as part of India’s development.

An Analysis

A Perspective on Political Responses

• The political response to population growth so far has been the freezing of delimitation based on population for 25 years, starting in 1976, with the freeze extended in 2001. While this freeze may appear to be a solution, it does not address the underlying disparities between states.
• Alternatives, such as allocating seats based on vote share or changing the electoral system, have been suggested, but these are seen as unfeasible or inappropriate.

Population and Resource Allocation

• Population plays a key role in resource allocation between states, with the Finance Commission using population as one of the criteria for determining how funds are distributed.
• States with higher populations and those that have made less progress in reducing fertility rates tend to benefit the most. The 14th Finance Commission began incorporating “demographic change” to address the disparities caused by varying fertility rates, and the 15th Finance Commission maintained this adjustment, which has further favoured states with lower fertility rates.

Promoting Economic Growth in Lagging States

• A potential solution to the fertility rate imbalance could be promoting accelerated economic growth in lagging states.
• Several initiatives, such as the aspirational district program, are underway, but further efforts are needed. The central and state governments must work together to develop innovative strategies to boost economic growth in these regions.

Migration and Fertility Rates

• Another response could involve migration to redistribute population, but large-scale, permanent migration could have serious social consequences. Instead, the focus should be on addressing fertility rates directly.
• India’s population is projected to peak at 170 crore around 2070 before beginning to decline. The country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has reached 2, just below the replacement level of 2.1, with significant variation between states.

Managing Fertility Rate Disparities

• Two-thirds of India’s population resides in states with replacement-level or lower fertility, while a third lives in states with higher fertility rates. TFR ranges from 1.5 to 3.0 across states.
• Rather than attempting to increase fertility rates in states with lower TFR, the focus should be on reducing fertility rates in higher-TFR states. India is already overpopulated, and economic growth is essential to ensure a decent standard of living for the current population.
• Encouraging states with lower fertility rates to raise their numbers could be counterproductive, as these states have already realized the challenges of larger families. The better strategy would be to accelerate the decline in fertility rates in high-TFR states through empowering women and improving reproductive health services.

Conclusion

• Addressing fertility rate disparities among Indian states requires a multi-pronged approach.
• Focused efforts in high-TFR states to empower women and improve reproductive health services will help foster balanced development and harmonious relations among states, ensuring a sustainable future.