AMIGOS IAS Daily Current Affairs (26^th Sept 2024)

Recent developments about Clause 6 of the Assam Accord

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Assam accord

Why is it in the news?

• After a meeting with All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) representatives, Assam CM announced the implementation of 52 recommendations from the Justice Biplab Sarma Committee related to Clause 6 of the Assam Accord.
• Formed in July 2019, the committee aimed to propose measures for safeguarding the Assamese community, finalizing its report in February 2020.

Recent developments

• A significant focus of the committee was defining “Assamese people” eligible for safeguards, suggesting it include Indigenous Tribals, other Indigenous Communities, and Indian citizens residing in Assam as of January 1, 1951, along with their descendants.
• The committee proposed various reservations for these groups in political representation and employment.
• Chief Minister Sarma confirmed the state government would adopt January 1, 1951, as the cut-off date for implementing certain recommendations, while noting that 15 major recommendations would require constitutional amendments.
• The 67 recommendations were classified into three categories:

1) 40 under the state government’s jurisdiction.

2) 12 needing the Centre’s approval.

3) 15 solely for the Centre.

• The state plans to implement the first two categories by April 2025, presenting a roadmap to AASU by October 25, 2024. The focus will be on safeguards related to language, land, and cultural heritage.

Key Areas of Implementation

Land

• Establishing Revenue Circles for land ownership exclusive to “Assamese people.”
• Initiating a program for land title issuance to long-term occupants lacking documentation.
• Conducting surveys of char areas to prioritize land allotment for erosion-affected residents.

Language

• Keeping Assamese as the official language with local language provisions in certain regions.
• Mandating Assamese in all government documents alongside English.
• Forming an Autonomous Language and Literature Academy for indigenous languages.
• Requiring Assamese as a compulsory subject up to class VIII or X in English medium schools.

Cultural Heritage

• Creating an autonomous authority for financial support of sattras (neo-Vaishnavite monasteries).
• Developing cultural complexes in each district to promote diverse ethnic heritage.

Conclusion

• However, several sensitive recommendations, described as the “soul” of the report, were excluded from implementation that includes proposals for an Inner Line Permit in Assam and significant political and job reservations for the Assamese.
• Moreover, concerns have been raised regarding the Centre’s involvement, as the Home Ministry had not officially accepted the report, questioning its legal standing.

The Misguided Push for ‘One Nation, One Election’

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Simultaneous elections

Why is it in the news?

• P.D.T. Achary (former Secretary General, Lok Sabha) critiques the idea of “one nation, one election,” initially proposed by Prime Minister Modi, which aims to hold simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha, State Assemblies, and local bodies.
• The frequent need for campaigns due to staggered elections may have spurred this idea, leading to the formation of a high-level committee, chaired by former President Ram Nath Kovind, to explore its feasibility.

The Constitutional Amendment Bill

• Implementing simultaneous elections requires amendments to various Articles of the Constitution, notably affecting the tenure of State Assemblies. Currently fixed at five years under Article 172, Assembly tenures would need to be synchronized with that of the Lok Sabha.
• The proposed constitutional amendment bill faces a critical challenge in the 18th Lok Sabha, where it needs a special majority for passage.
• With the ruling National Democratic Alliance holding around 292 seats, the gap to the required 362 votes indicates significant hurdles, especially given opposition resistance to the proposal.

Thin Arguments for Simultaneous Elections

• The high-level committee presents two main arguments for simultaneous elections.

1) Firstly, it claims substantial cost savings by reducing the frequency of elections. However, this assertion requires scrutiny; the budget allocation for the Election Commission of India (ECI) is not excessively high, and the overall expenditure, when accounting for state logistics, is manageable.

• For the financial year 2023-24, Parliament allocated ₹466 crore to the Election Commission of India (ECI) for the 2024 general election, up from ₹320 crore in 2022-23. This amount is relatively modest for electoral expenses.
• State governments also incur expenses for logistical support during elections, as mandated by Article 324(6) and Section 160 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. However, even considering these costs, the overall expenditure by both Union and State governments is not substantial.
• While political party spending is significant, any savings from holding elections once every five years are unlikely to be redirected towards infrastructure projects like roads or hospitals.
• Historical evidence shows that during the period of simultaneous elections from 1951-52 to 1967, political parties did not invest saved funds into such initiatives, undermining the assumption that savings would enhance infrastructure.

2) Secondly, the committee argues that frequent elections disrupt government development plans due to the enforcement of the model code of conduct.

• Nonetheless, there is little empirical evidence to support this claim, as developmental progress has continued despite regular elections since 1967.
• Notably, the demonetization of 85% of India’s currency occurred just before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, demonstrating that significant reforms can proceed alongside electoral cycles.

Federalism at Risk

• Synchronizing the tenures of State Assemblies with the Lok Sabha threatens the autonomy of these legislative bodies. The Constitution grants States independent law-making powers, and altering Assembly tenures undermines this federal structure.
• The Kesavananda Bharati decision emphasizes that Parliament cannot change the Constitution’s basic structure, of which federalism is a crucial component. If enacted, this amendment could lead to inconsistent Assembly terms, further complicating governance.

Benefits of Frequent Elections

• Frequent elections carry several advantages, primarily enhancing the accountability of elected representatives. Regular electoral cycles force politicians to engage with constituents more often, fostering stronger connections and responsiveness.
• In contrast, elections held every five years may lead to disconnection between representatives and the electorate, resulting in political stagnation.
• Additionally, a government in office can gauge public sentiment through ongoing elections, allowing for necessary adjustments to policies and priorities.

Conclusion

• The proposal for simultaneous elections threatens the federal balance of India’s Constitution and does not align with the pressing concerns of ordinary citizens.
• The potential consequences suggest that pursuing this initiative may not be worthwhile.

India’s Tech Diplomacy — from Nehru to Modi

GS 2: International Relations: India’s technology diplomacy

Why is it in the news?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the United States underscored the pivotal role of technological cooperation in India’s diplomacy.
• The key discussions included Modi’s bilateral talks with President Joe Biden, the Quad leaders’ summit, and his address at the United Nations Summit of the Future.
• The resulting initiatives span areas such as semiconductors, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, clean energy, quantum computing, and advanced nuclear technologies, enhancing India’s technological capabilities for both civilian and military applications.

An Analysis

• Historically, technology has played a central role in India’s national strategy. There have been three previous phases where technology was emphasized, yet each ended short of realizing India’s full potential due to various constraints.
• Today, a convergence of domestic and international factors is setting the stage for a more consequential phase of technology diplomacy that could significantly impact India’s security and economic prosperity.
• This renewed focus on advanced technology is driven by the NDA government’s initiatives, the US’s search for capable partners amid its rivalry with China, and the need to realign global supply chains. Technology is now a crucial element in India’s engagement not just with the US but also with countries like France, Germany, and Japan.
• In the 1950s, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru prioritized access to advanced technologies to modernize India’s economy, collaborating with Western powers to develop nuclear and space programs. The US also supported the Green Revolution through agricultural technology.
• However, by the 1970s, momentum faltered due to economic populism, anti-Americanism, and increasing reliance on the Soviet Union. Events such as the 1974 nuclear test further complicated India’s technological engagement, leading many Indian scientists to seek opportunities abroad.
• Indira and Rajiv Gandhi sought to revive technological cooperation in the 1980s, focusing on enhancing India-US relations outside the non-proliferation framework. Rajiv Gandhi’s push for telecommunications and computing provided vital political support, but structural constraints limited progress.
• The nuclear tests of 1998 led to US sanctions but also opened the door for reconciling nuclear issues. Subsequent governments, particularly under Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, aimed to leverage this opportunity, culminating in the 2005 civil nuclear agreement, though internal divisions hindered full realization.
• The return of a majority government in 2014 reinvigorated India’s technology diplomacy, with the Modi administration addressing unresolved aspects of the US nuclear deal and prioritizing digital and green technologies.
• In the second term, the focus broadened to include AI and semiconductors, aligning with global technological trends.
• The US has increasingly recognized the challenges posed by China, leading to a greater emphasis on defense and technological partnerships with India, exemplified by the initiative on critical and emerging technologies (iCET).
• The recent joint statement at Wilmington builds on the strategic framework established during Modi’s state visit to Washington in June 2023.

Way Forward

• Both countries share geopolitical interests in stabilizing the Asian balance of power and reducing dependence on China, forming technology coalitions among like-minded nations. The historical brain drain from India to the US has transformed into a technological bridge connecting the two.
• While this phase of technology diplomacy has capitalized on new international opportunities, it must be supported by reforms within India’s science and technology sectors.
• Without addressing internal bureaucratic resistance, the potential benefits may not be fully realized, leading to suboptimal outcomes.

Exit of European Renewable Giants from Vietnam

GS 2: International Relations: Renewable energy goals of Vietnam

Why is it in the news?

• Vietnam’s ambitious renewable energy goals face significant challenges, prompting major European investors to reassess their commitments.
• Notably, Italian energy conglomerate Enel plans to withdraw from Vietnam, following similar moves by Norway’s Equinor and Denmark’s Orsted, which have cancelled projects in the country. Enel had aimed to generate up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy, primarily through wind power, but growing concerns about the sector are driving its exit.

Current Energy Landscape

• Vietnam currently has an installed electricity capacity of approximately 80 GW, with plans to nearly double this by 2030.
• The government intends for renewable sources to make up at least 31% of the energy mix, with wind projected to contribute 18.5%, while solar’s share is expected to drop to 8.5%.

Roadblocks to Progress

• A major barrier is the absence of a solid framework for offshore wind development, with delays in project approvals and pricing mechanisms frustrating investors.
• Equinor and Orsted have already exited the offshore wind sector due to regulatory uncertainties, and experts note that the lack of profitability guarantees has stalled development.

Infrastructure and Funding Challenges

• Integrating renewable projects into the national grid remains a challenge, as existing infrastructure is inadequate for new energy sources. Despite promises to reduce coal dependence, the transition is slow.
• The government’s recently approved power development plan (PDP8) aims to double capacity to over 150 GW by 2030, requiring an estimated $134 billion in funding. While the G7 pledged $15.5 billion to support this transition, it falls significantly short of the financial needs.

Investment Woes and Competition

• Vietnam has historically attracted foreign investment, but rising tax burdens and insufficient financial incentives are causing major firms to reconsider their projects.
• For instance, Intel moved a planned $3.3 billion investment to Poland after being denied cash support, while AT&S and LG chose to invest elsewhere due to unmet support requests.
• These decisions highlight broader concerns about Vietnam’s investment climate and energy reliability, particularly after widespread power outages in 2023 disrupted foreign operations.

Conclusion

• Despite the challenges, experts believe Vietnam can still position itself as a leading manufacturing hub powered by renewable energy.
• Experts suggests focusing on key industrial zones with integrated renewable sources could enhance Vietnam’s competitiveness.
• As global demand for sustainable manufacturing rises, Vietnam must fulfil its commitments to maintain its edge, raising the question of whether it will lead or follow in the renewable energy transition.

The Impact of Global Warming on Weather Forecasting

GS 3: Environment and Biodiversity: Enhancing weather predictions

Why is it in the news?

• The record warming of 2023-2024 has highlighted the severe effects of global warming, evident in extreme weather events like heatwaves, cyclones, floods, droughts, and wildfires.
• Estimates suggest that global temperatures may have surpassed the critical 1.5º C threshold above pre-industrial levels. However, it remains uncertain how long temperatures need to stay elevated for significant impacts to emerge.
• This period of extreme weather emphasizes our current limitations in effectively predicting weather and climate patterns. The ongoing loss of lives and infrastructure disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, underlining the urgent need for improved forecasting capabilities.

An Analysis

• Meteorologists accurately predicted the 2023 El Niño early in the year, but the extent of warming has been unexpectedly severe, likely worsened by factors like the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai volcano and CO2 emissions from wildfires.
• While the 2023 monsoon was deficient, it did not qualify as an El Niño drought, and predictions for a strong La Niña in late 2024 now appear uncertain. The monsoon season in India has produced erratic outcomes, with some areas facing drought while others suffer from flooding.
• Cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean has also been weaker than anticipated for a La Niña year. This situation underscores the need for caution and learning from recent extremes to enhance future climate predictions.
• As physicist Niels Bohr noted, “prediction is difficult, especially if it’s about the future”, this adage is particularly relevant in weather and climate forecasting. While models are continually refined, the recent inconsistencies in predictions raise concerns about future accuracy.
• Many studies have explored warming impacts on natural phenomena like hurricanes and monsoons, but the current warming period hasn’t lasted long enough to draw definitive conclusions about changes in climate modes. Existing models often yield conflicting results and struggle to replicate historical trends, questioning their reliability for future forecasts.
• Despite the challenges, there is optimism for improving predictive capabilities. Continued enhancements to models are crucial, especially as scientists work to understand potential declines in the predictability of natural patterns under relentless warming.
• Further, advances in technology, including artificial intelligence and enhanced data networks, can significantly aid this effort.
• As we project further into the future, it’s essential to evaluate the costs and benefits of resources allocated to climate projections extending to 2100, given the uncertainties that arise from model variability and the unpredictable nature of warming.

Conclusion

• The lessons from 2023’s climate extremes highlight the urgent need to refine predictive models and improve disaster management strategies.
• Understanding the limitations of current models and embracing technological advancements can pave the way for more reliable climate predictions in the coming decades.

Deendayal Upadhyaya’s doctrine of Integral Humanism

GS 1: Culture and History: Deendayal Upadhyaya

Why is it in the news?

• September 25 marks the 108th birth anniversary of Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya, a significant thinker in India’s right-wing movement and a founding member of the Bharatiya Jan Sangh.
• Upadhyaya’s philosophy of Integral Humanism,” reflects a desire for uniquely Indian ideas to guide the newly independent nation, rather than adopting Western ideologies.

An Insight

• Integral Humanism emphasizes unity and harmony within the individual and between individuals and society. Upadhyaya posited that a human being comprises the body, mind, intelligence, and soul, and that the development of each is vital.
• Central to this doctrine are the four purusharth—dharma, artha, karma, and moksha—which represent different areas of human effort and fulfilment.
• Following India’s independence, there was a strong sentiment that the nation should be guided by indigenous thought rather than Western political philosophies.
• Upadhyaya articulated this perspective in a 1965 lecture, critiquing Western isms like nationalism, democracy, and socialism for their contradictions. He argued that India’s rich historical and philosophical heritage should inform its governance.
• He distinguished Indian thought as viewing life as an integrated whole, in contrast to the fragmented perspective often found in the West. He asserted that Indian philosophy values the body, mind, intelligence, and soul equally, advocating for their nourishment to achieve a meaningful life.
• In discussing the four purusharths, Upadhyaya stated that these efforts—dharma (righteousness), artha (wealth), karma (desire), and moksha (liberation)—are innate to human beings. He explained that fulfilling these in an integrated manner leads to true progress and joy.