The Collapse of France’s Government: Implications and the Road Ahead

GS 2: International Relations: Political fractures in France

Why is it in the news?

• President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to stay in office until his term ends in 2027, resisting calls for resignation following the collapse of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government.
• The dramatic no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly marked a historic moment, making Barnier, appointed in September, the shortest-serving prime minister of the French Fifth Republic, which began in 1958. The vote highlighted deeper political fractures in France, stemming from a snap election held earlier this year.

No-Confidence Vote and Budget Disputes

• The vote of no-confidence stemmed from parliament’s rejection of the government’s budget proposals. The draft aimed to save €60 billion through austerity measures, including pension reforms and spending cuts, but faced resistance from both left- and right-wing parties.
• Support from either bloc was crucial for the government’s survival, as none of the three major political groups — the left, the right, or Barnier’s centre-right coalition — held a majority.
• Anticipating opposition, Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, enabling the government to pass the budget without a parliamentary vote. This move triggered opposition parties to file a motion of no-confidence, which succeeded in toppling the government.

Instability from Snap Elections

• The current instability can be traced to Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections in June, following right-wing gains in EU Parliament polls.
• Macron hoped to weaken right-wing parties in national polls, but the results backfired. Instead of bolstering his Ensemble coalition, the elections strengthened left-wing parties, making them the largest bloc, while far-right parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, also gained ground at Ensemble’s expense.
• In France’s semi-presidential system, Macron appointed Barnier, a conservative from The Republicans party, as prime minister. This decision angered left-wing parties, who believed they held the people’s mandate.
• Although the president is not legally bound to appoint the leader of the largest party in parliament, public expectations often dictate such moves to avoid backlash.
• Barnier’s appointment created a rare instance of “cohabitation,” where the president and prime minister belong to different political parties.
• While not unprecedented, such periods in French politics have historically been marked by legislative deadlocks and clashes between the president and parliament due to differing agendas.

Next Steps for France

• Macron has announced plans to appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with names like Sébastien Lecornu, François Bayrou, and Xavier Bertrand emerging as potential candidates. Until then, Barnier will lead a caretaker government.
• To avoid a government shutdown, a special law will be introduced by mid-December, enabling the state to levy taxes under existing rules while the new government drafts a budget for 2025.
• Given the fractured parliament, the incoming prime minister is likely to face similar challenges. Parliamentary elections cannot be held until July 2025 under constitutional rules, intensifying the pressure on Macron to navigate these political and fiscal obstacles.

Conclusion

• France’s financial stability has become a pressing concern, as the country enters 2024 without a new budget.
• Moody’s, a global credit rating agency, warned that the government’s collapse reduces the likelihood of addressing public finances effectively. With high national debt and deep political divisions, France faces significant challenges in maintaining economic stability.

RBI Maintains Repo Rate, Cuts CRR to Support Growth

GS 3: Economy: RBI MPC’s Review

Why is it in the news?

• The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 50% for the 11th consecutive bi-monthly review, with four out of six members voting in favour. This decision reflects the RBI’s focus on combating inflation despite weakening growth momentum.
• However, to address tight liquidity conditions expected to persist for months, the RBI reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for banks by 50 basis points to 4%. This marks the first such reduction in two and a half years, aimed at supporting economic growth.

Growth Forecast Downgrade

• RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted the slowdown in growth momentum, which led to a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast for FY2024-25 to 6.6% from 7.2%.
• Real GDP growth for Q2 (July-September) fell to 5.4%, a seven-quarter low, compared to the RBI’s earlier projection of 7%. While the growth outlook remains resilient for the second half of FY2024-25, it requires close monitoring, given inflationary pressures and subdued private consumption.

Rising Inflation Projections

• Retail inflation for FY2024-25 has been revised upward to 4.8% from the earlier 4.5%, driven by a sharp increase in food prices during September and October.
• Governor Das noted that food inflation pressures are likely to persist through Q3 before easing in Q4, supported by seasonal corrections in vegetable prices, kharif harvest arrivals, a robust rabi output, and adequate cereal buffer stocks.
• However, adverse weather events, geopolitical uncertainties, and market volatility pose upside risks to inflation.

Liquidity Measures

• To mitigate liquidity stress arising from tax and GST payments, the RBI will implement the CRR reduction in two phases: 25 basis points each on December 14 and December 28, 2024.
• This measure will release about ₹1.16 lakh crore of primary liquidity into the banking system, aligning with the neutral policy stance.

Encouraging Capital Inflows

• To attract capital inflows, the RBI has increased the interest rate ceiling on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits. For deposits of 1 to less than 3 years maturity, the ceiling has been raised to the overnight Alternative Reference Rate (ARR) plus 400 basis points from the previous 250 basis points.
• Similarly, for deposits of 3 to 5 years maturity, the ceiling has been increased to ARR plus 500 basis points from 350 basis points. This relaxation will be in effect until March 31, 2025.

Balancing Growth and Inflation

• Governor Das described the current growth-inflation scenario as a “critical juncture,” emphasizing the need for prudence in navigating the complexities of the evolving situation.
• While calls for interest rate cuts have emerged from some government quarters, the MPC prioritized inflation control to ensure stable economic foundations for long-term growth.
• The RBI reaffirmed its commitment to restoring a balance between inflation and growth in the economy’s overall interest.

EPFO Wins Global Award

GS 3: Economy: Recognising EPFO’s contributions

Why is it in the news?

• The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has won the International Social Security Association’s (ISSA) Good Practice Award for Asia and the Pacific this year.
• The award was presented by ISSA president at the Regional Social Security Forum held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

More about the news

• The EPFO received five Certificates of Merit for its efficient communication channels, conduct of e-proceedings, the outreach programme Nidhi Aapke Nikat, multilingual call centres, and the initiative Prayaas for delivering pension orders.
• These initiatives were appreciated for enhancing stakeholder engagement and streamlining services.
• The EPFO’s communication channels were commended for their efficiency. A mix of digital and non-digital communication strategies has been adopted to ensure timely and effective outreach.
• The Union Labour Ministry highlighted the use of webinars, short message service (SMS), emails, social media, information education communication (IEC) videos, and camps under Nidhi Aapke Nikat for educating and engaging stakeholders.
• E-proceedings, including judicial processes to determine dues from defaulting employers, were also recognized as a key innovation. These initiatives reflect the EPFO’s commitment to modernizing its services and ensuring efficient operations.

Indira Gandhi Peace Prize

GS 1: Society: Role of Women

Why is it in the news?

• The 2024 Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament, and Development will be awarded to Michelle Bachelet, the former President of Chile and a prominent advocate for human rights. The announcement was made by the Indira Gandhi Memorial Trust.

Michelle Bachelet contributions

• Bachelet is recognized globally for her leadership in advocating for human rights, peace, and equality. Her distinguished roles include serving as the founding director of UN Women, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the President of Chile.
• Her efforts have focused on gender equality and the rights of vulnerable populations, both domestically and globally.
• The prize honours Bachelet’s exceptional work in promoting gender equality, human rights, democracy, and development, particularly in challenging circumstances.
• The award also acknowledges her significant contributions to strengthening the relationship between India and Chile.

How the Supreme Court Decides Which Cases to Prioritize

GS 2: Polity and Governance: SC addressing backlog

Why is it in the news?

• The Supreme Court of India receives a large number of cases annually, and many others are already pending.
• To manage this massive backlog, the Court has been prioritizing certain types of cases, especially Special Leave Petitions (SLPs), over the past month. These are cases in which the Court has issued notices but has not yet granted leave or permission to appeal.
• The Court has been dedicating three days of the workweek to hearing these SLPs, with Mondays and Fridays reserved for fresh cases. This strategy limits the listing of cases requiring detailed hearings.

Chief Justice Sanjiv Khanna’s Plan to Address Backlog

• Chief Justice of India (CJI) Sanjiv Khanna introduced a new plan to address the increasing case backlog. Upon taking office in November, the CJI issued a circular instructing the Court to prioritize “after notice miscellaneous matters” for hearing on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.
• The circular also specified that regular hearing matters would not be listed on these days until further orders.
• The prioritization of cases that can be quickly admitted or dismissed over those requiring extensive arguments aims to reduce the ever-growing backlog, which currently stands at over 82,000 pending cases according to the National Judicial Data Grid.

Understanding Special Leave Petitions (SLPs) and Case Types

• SLPs, which are appeals filed against the orders of High Courts, make up the bulk of the Court’s docket. According to the book Court on Trial: A Data-Driven Account of the Supreme Court of India, the SC accepts only 14% of the SLPs filed.
• The SC hears a significant number of these cases annually—over 60,000 between 2010 and 2014—before deciding whether to admit them.
• Typically, SLP hearings last about 1 minute and 33 seconds. Once a case is admitted, however, it can take over four years for a judgment to be delivered. As appeals comprise about 92.4% of the Court’s docket, this lengthy process contributes to the increasing pendency.

Previous Approaches to Pendency

• CJI Khanna’s predecessors tackled the issue of pendency differently. Former CJI D.Y. Chandrachud and CJI U.U. Lalit focused more on hearing cases that required regular hearings or constitutional bench hearings.
• During Justice Chandrachud’s tenure, the pendency of regular cases fell from 28,682 to 22,000. However, this strategy often resulted in a large number of cases being mentioned for urgent hearings, which further contributed to the backlog.

Journey of Cases in the SC

• The Supreme Court’s administrative function is overseen by the Registry, which handles both administrative and judicial tasks. When a case is filed, it goes through a verification process at the filing counter or through e-Filing, ensuring that all required documents and signatures are in place.
• After verification, the case is registered and sent to the listing department, where it is scheduled for hearing. Fresh matters are usually listed on Mondays and Fridays, known as “Miscellaneous Days,” while detailed hearings take place on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, referred to as “Non-Miscellaneous Days.”
• During these hearings, the Court considers whether to admit cases or reject them, and for admitted cases, a final hearing is scheduled.

Managing Case Backlog

• To address the increasing pendency of cases, the Supreme Court has been experimenting with different case-listing strategies. The court continuously revises its approach, focusing on reducing delays in the admission stage and providing a more efficient hearing schedule.
• Constitutional Bench hearings and other major cases are listed as needed, with the overall aim of managing pendency more effectively.

Why Low-Intensity Cyclone Fengal Caused Large-Scale Destruction

GS 1: Geography: Cyclone and its impact

Why is it in the news?

• Cyclone Fengal made landfall near Puducherry on November 30, with wind speeds ranging between 75-95 kmph, classifying it as a low-intensity storm. Despite its lower wind speeds, the cyclone caused significant destruction, with at least 12 deaths, extensive property damage, and large-scale crop destruction, particularly in Tamil Nadu.

Categories of Cyclones

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizes cyclones based on their wind speeds. The categories are as follows:

• Low pressure (< 31 kmph)
• Depression (31-49 kmph)
• Deep depression (50-61 kmph)
• Cyclonic storm (62-88 kmph)
• Severe cyclonic storm (89-117 kmph)
• Very severe cyclonic storm (118-221 kmph)
• Super cyclone (> 222 kmph)
• Fengal, with its wind speeds of 75-95 kmph, fell into the “Cyclonic Storm” category, which is relatively low-intensity compared to some other cyclones that have caused massive destruction.

Comparison with Past Cyclones

• Historically, Indian coasts have been impacted by more intense cyclones. For instance, the Odisha super cyclone in October 1999 had wind speeds of 260 kmph, Cyclone Phailin in May 2013 reached 215 kmph, and Cyclone Amphan in May 2020 had wind speeds of 185 kmph.
• Compared to these powerful storms, Cyclone Fengal was considered a low-intensity storm. Despite this, its impact was still devastating, highlighting that cyclone intensity alone does not always correlate with the extent of destruction.

Why Was Fengal So Destructive?

• According to the IMD, the primary factor behind the destructive impact of Cyclone Fengal was its slow movement. From its origin to landfall, Fengal moved at an unusually slow pace, at times less than 6 kmph over the sea.
• After making landfall near Puducherry, it remained stationary for nearly 12 hours, maintaining its intensity as a cyclone. This prolonged period of heavy rainfall and rough winds led to significant destruction in the region.
• Typically, cyclones weaken after landfall due to friction with obstructions like buildings and trees. However, Fengal’s stationary nature exacerbated its effects.
• The slow movement meant that the storm’s destructive power lingered for a much longer time, leading to greater damage and a higher number of casualties. Interestingly, recent stronger cyclones like Cyclone Dana (October 2024), despite being more intense than Fengal, caused minimal damage and human casualties.

What is the “Anti-Sabotage” Security Check?

GS 2: Polity and Governance: Ensuring Safety of Parliament

Why is it in the news?

• On December 6, 2024, the Rajya Sabha Chairman announced that a wad of currency notes was discovered at seat number 222, currently allotted to a Congress MP, during a routine “anti-sabotage” security check conducted by the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF).
• The check, carried out on December 5, is part of the regular security measures taken to ensure the safety of Parliament.

The Role of the Anti-Sabotage Drill

• The “anti-sabotage” security drill is a routine exercise carried out by anti-sabotage teams of the CISF every day when Parliament is in session. These teams, equipped with sniffer dogs trained to detect explosives, conduct the checks for around three hours each morning.
• During this time, all seats in both Houses of Parliament are thoroughly examined. Parliament staff are withdrawn from the chambers to allow the CISF team to perform their duties without interruption.
• The CISF teams look for any suspicious objects or signs of unusual activity in the chambers, which may indicate potential sabotage or threats. Their task is to identify any irregularities or signs of human interference in the areas under their surveillance.
• If anything suspicious is detected, it is reported to the unit in-charge, who escalates the matter to his superior officer for further action.

Historical Background of the Anti-Sabotage Drills

• The anti-sabotage drills in Parliament have been carried out by the CISF since May 2024, when the force took over all counterterrorism and anti-sabotage security duties at the Parliament Complex.
• This followed the withdrawal of approximately 1,400 personnel from the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) from these duties. As of now, 3,317 CISF personnel are deployed to secure both the old and new Parliament buildings, as well as other structures within the Complex.
• Prior to the CISF taking over, a joint team consisting of the CRPF, Delhi Police, and Parliament’s own Security Services (PSS) conducted the anti-sabotage checks.

Why Was Security Handed Over to CISF?

• The decision to transfer Parliament’s security responsibilities to the CISF was prompted by a security breach on December 13, 2023, when two individuals jumped into the Lok Sabha chamber from the public gallery during Zero Hour. They released yellow smoke canisters and shouted slogans before being restrained by MPs.
• At the same time, two other individuals carried out a similar act outside the building. Although this incident occurred on the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attack on Parliament, no terrorism angle was involved.
• A committee, led by the CRPF Director General, was formed to review the overall security of the Parliament Complex and made recommendations, which led to the CISF assuming full responsibility for security on May 20, 2024.