China-India State of Play

GS 2: International Relations: India-China Bridging Trust

Why is it in the news?

• The India-China relationship has been marred by a trust deficit, especially after the border standoff in Ladakh began over four years ago.
• A senior Chinese official emphasized the importance of trust, stating, “If you and I don’t have trust, then the countries cannot have trust.” This was highlighted during an Indian media delegation’s visit to China—the first since 2019, following the pandemic and the standoff.

An Analysis

China’s Call to Normalize Ties

• Chinese officials, business leaders, and scholars conveyed a clear message: China is ready to rebuild ties and resume business relations. They pointed to the chemistry between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visible during their October 23 meeting at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
• The Chinese side outlined a wish-list, including resuming direct flights, easing visa restrictions, lifting bans on Chinese apps, allowing Chinese journalists in India, and increasing cultural exchanges like screening Indian movies in China.
• The Galwan Valley clash in June 2020 was a major setback, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers. This violent encounter strained political relations, leading to several restrictions.
• However, a breakthrough came in October 2023, with soldiers from both sides resuming patrols along the LAC. This marked the start of a three-step process involving disengagement, de-escalation, and troop withdrawal.
• Recent meetings, including one between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the G20 summit, reveal differences in approach.
• India’s statement emphasized the importance of maintaining border peace before advancing ties, while China described the Xi-Modi meeting as a “restart and re-launch” of relations. This reflects Beijing’s eagerness to move forward, contrasted with India’s cautious stance.

Areas of Agreement and Disagreement

• Both nations agree on resuming direct flights and media exchanges. However, India focused on restarting the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and data sharing on trans-border rivers, while China emphasized celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties through enhanced exchanges.
• Despite differences, India’s willingness to discuss next steps marks a shift from its earlier hardline position of linking normalization to border resolution.
• Further, in a recent meeting with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun at the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ summit, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh highlighted the need for de-escalation and emphasized cooperation over conflict.
• With 50,000-60,000 troops deployed on each side of the LAC, de-escalation remains critical. The process has begun, with disengagement at friction points and the resumption of Indian patrols, but cautious monitoring continues.

Conclusion

• While India remains guarded, progress is evident in bilateral discussions. De-escalation at the border remains a key focus, and future meetings aim to address unresolved issues.
• Both nations recognize the importance of moving forward to avoid stagnation, even as India carefully navigates hardened public sentiment and trust deficits.

Peak Oil and the Shift Toward Renewable Energy

GS 3: Economy: Transitioning away from fossil fuels

Why is it in the news?

• “Peak oil” initially referred to the point when global oil production would reach its highest level and then inevitably decline.
• In 1956, Shell geoscientist M. King Hubbert predicted that global crude oil production would peak around 2000, based on known reserves at the time. This forecast led to widespread concern about economic collapse and potential apocalyptic scenarios.
• However, Hubbert’s prediction did not fully materialize. Although production from easily accessible reserves did peak in the early 21st century, advances in extraction technologies allowed production to continue, reaching 96.4 million barrels per day in 2023.

An Analysis

Technological Advances in Oil Production

• Technological innovations, particularly hydraulic fracturing (fracking), have played a major role in boosting oil production. Fracking involves injecting water and chemicals into rocks to release oil, and it became widespread in the U.S. in the early 2000s.
• As a result, the U.S. has become the world’s leading oil producer, leading to a shift in the definition of “peak oil.” Experts now focus on “peak extraction” rather than simply worrying about limited supply.

Shifting Focus to Peak Demand

• The focus has moved from concerns about running out of oil to the possibility of reaching a plateau in demand.
• Experts notes that the issue today is not the depletion of oil, but rather the potential for peak demand as renewable energy sources begin replacing oil and gas. In 2023, renewable energy growth, particularly solar, set a new record, largely driven by advancements in solar panel technology, especially in China.

Growth of Renewable Energy

• Renewable energy, including solar, wind, and other green technologies, is growing rapidly and now accounts for over 30% of global electricity production. Investment in renewables has surged, and the cost of these technologies is falling, while sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are steadily increasing.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that for the first time in 2023, investment in clean technologies outpaced fossil fuel investments, signalling a major shift toward a cleaner energy future. Experts predict that by 2030, EVs could comprise 50-66% of global car sales, further reducing oil demand.

Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels

• To address climate change, experts argue for a halt to fossil fuel exploitation. A 2015 study published in Nature estimated that to limit global warming to 2°C, a substantial portion of the world’s oil, gas, and coal reserves must remain untapped.
• The IEA’s 2024 report projects that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030, even with minimal climate action. After 2030, it will be increasingly difficult to justify new fossil fuel projects due to the competitiveness of clean energy, driven by falling costs and innovation.

Financial Risks and Fossil Fuel Investments

• Despite the growth of clean energy, many oil companies continue to expand fossil fuel production. A report from Influence Map shows that most oil companies, except BP, have increased oil production, even though some future projects may become financially unviable.
• As renewables become cheaper, these fossil fuel investments could turn into stranded assets—once profitable but now obsolete. This situation raises concerns among investors, especially pension funds, which still have significant exposure to oil and gas.

Economic and Social Implications

• The transition away from fossil fuels could have significant economic consequences for oil-dependent countries. According to Carbon Tracker, up to 40% of the fiscal budgets in some nations could be at risk as oil prices fall and the clean energy transition progresses.
• This shift may also create financial insecurity for individuals relying on pension funds invested in oil and gas.

The Future of Clean Energy

• The IEA emphasizes that transitioning to clean energy can occur without sacrificing reliable energy supplies. As renewable energy becomes more efficient and widespread, fossil fuel reliance will decrease.
• The shift toward clean electricity is seen as the future of global energy systems, helping mitigate the climate crisis while supporting economic growth and job creation in clean energy sectors. However, the transition will take time, and fossil fuels will remain part of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future.

 

Russia’s IRBM Launch: A Major Escalation in the Ukraine War

GS 2: International Relations: Russia-Ukraine War

Why is it in the news?

• Russia’s recent firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at Ukraine marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict.

The Missile and Its Capabilities

• The missile fired by Russia, a new experimental IRBM, was based on the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM model and is capable of reaching a range of up to 5,500 km, which could target any European city from Russian territory.
• This missile also carries a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) payload, which is associated with nuclear-capable weapons. Although not an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the IRBM’s nuclear capability raises alarms, as it marks the first use of nuclear-capable weapons in the Ukraine war.

A Response to Escalation

• Russia’s missile launch comes after Ukraine, backed by the US and UK, had used advanced Western weapons, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, to strike Russian targets.
• Russian President Putin framed the IRBM launch as a direct response to these escalations, especially the US and UK’s approval for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with high-tech weapons.
• This escalation adds further complexity to the conflict as NATO’s strategy in Europe is influenced. The development of new Russian missiles may affect NATO’s decisions regarding air defense systems and offensive capabilities, possibly leading to more tension between Moscow and the West.
• Additionally, Russia’s missile deployment is seen as a response to the US ballistic missile defense base in Poland, which was set up to intercept intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

Conclusion

• As Putin himself stated, what began as a regional conflict has now taken on global dimensions. With major powers like the US and Russia intensifying their military strategies, this escalation could have broader international implications.

India’s Intervention at UNFCCC CoP29 Plenary Session

GS 3: Environment and Biodiversity: India@ CoP29

Why is it in the news?

• India expressed disappointment over the shift in focus from climate finance to an emphasis on mitigation at the UNFCCC CoP29 plenary in Baku, Azerbaijan.
• Aligning with Bolivia’s statement on behalf of Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs), India stressed that the fight against climate change must be guided by the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, particularly as the Global South faces severe climate impacts.

Concerns on Mitigation Focus and Climate Finance

• India rejected the narrowing focus solely on mitigation, emphasizing the need for adequate financial support to achieve mitigation goals.
• It underscored the importance of grant-based concessional climate finance for implementing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), advocating for a USD 1.3 trillion mobilization goal, with USD 600 billion allocated as grants.

Opposition to Mitigation Work Programme Changes

• India opposed changes to the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) draft, rejecting new targets for 2030, 2035, and 2050, as these were seen as prescriptive and outside the Paris Agreement framework.
• India also called for the inclusion of concerns about increased emissions from Annex-I Parties and the negative impact of unilateral actions on climate efforts.

Position on Just Transition and Global Stocktake

• India firmly rejected any renegotiation of the shared understanding on Just Transition established at CoP28, asserting that developed countries must lead in mitigation and support the implementation efforts of developing countries.
• Regarding the Global Stocktake (GST), India raised concerns over the lack of integration with financial discussions and the mitigation-centric nature of the new draft text.

Adaptation Concerns

India outlined five key points on the global adaptation goal:

1) Implementation indicators should be included to ensure meaningful adaptation efforts.

2) Incremental adaptation should be prioritized, focusing on national circumstances.

3) Data should be sourced from Party-submitted reports, not third-party databases.

4) The Baku Road Map should continue advancing the global adaptation goal.

5) No further segregation of adaptation progress indicators is necessary.

Final Statement

• India called for continued work on the global adaptation goal and argued that the focus of the CoP should remain on climate finance, enablement, and balance, warning that a failure to provide adequate finance would undermine climate action efforts.

Guru Ghasidas-Tamor Pingla: Chhattisgarh’s New Tiger Reserve

GS 3: Environment and Biodiversity: Tiger Reserve

Why is it in the news?

• The Chhattisgarh government recently declared Guru Ghasidas-Tamor Pingla as India’s 56th tiger reserve. This marks an important step towards boosting the state’s declining tiger population. The reserve also holds the potential for reintroducing cheetahs, last seen in the region during the 1940s.

Location and Features

• Guru Ghasidas-Tamor Pingla is the fourth tiger reserve in Chhattisgarh, after Achanakmar, Indravati, and Udanti Sitanadi.
• Spanning 2,829.387 sq km, it is India’s third-largest tiger reserve, located in the northern tribal Sarguja region. The reserve spreads across four districts: Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur (MCB), Korea, Surajpur, and Balrampur.
• Strategically situated, it lies between Bandhavgarh Tiger Reserve in Madhya Pradesh and Palamau Tiger Reserve in Jharkhand and is adjacent to MP’s Sanjay Dubri Tiger Reserve.
• The area hosts a variety of wildlife, including tigers, elephants, leopards, sloth bears, wolves, and vultures, alongside rich flora like sal, saja, and kusum. Its diverse terrain of hills, plateaus, valleys, and rivers creates an ideal habitat.

Tiger Population in Chhattisgarh

• The state currently has 30 tigers, including three sub-adults and two cubs, with 5-6 tigers already present in the new reserve. However, tiger numbers in Chhattisgarh have drastically declined from 46 in 2014 to 17 in 2022, as per the 2023 NTCA report.
• To increase tiger numbers, the state plans to introduce tigresses from Bandhavgarh and Sanjay Dubri reserves. Other initiatives include forming rapid response teams, improving relations with local villagers, employing full-time guards, and establishing informer-based wildlife protection systems.

Comprehensive Tiger Conservation Plan (TCP)

Authorities are developing a Tiger Conservation Plan to address various challenges. Key measures include:

• Improved Surveillance: Establishing robust road and wireless connectivity for patrolling hilly terrain.
• Prey Base Development: Enhancing grasslands and water bodies and translocating hundreds of cheetal and wild boars.
• Corridor Strengthening: Linking the reserve with Madhya Pradesh’s tiger-rich zones to facilitate migration.
• Conflict Mitigation: Creating awareness and relocating residents from 42 sparsely populated villages, offering job opportunities in tourism and reserve-related activities.
• The government is also working to develop an eco-tourism circuit, with jungle safaris, ancient cave painting sites, river walks, and waterfalls. Efforts are underway to secure a heritage site tag and create infrastructure for tourism.