AMIGOS IAS Daily Current Affairs (20^th Sept 2024)

Escalation in West Asia

GS 2: International Relations: Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Why is it in the news?

• Recent coordinated attacks in Lebanon and Syria have heightened tensions in West Asia, resulting in at least 37 fatalities and over 3,500 injuries, according to the Lebanese government.
• Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group, has accused Israel of orchestrating these assaults, though Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.
• Hezbollah’s leader characterized the attacks as a “terrorist act” and a declaration of war, raising fears of potential retaliation from both Hezbollah and Iran.

Connection to the Gaza Conflict

• This escalation is closely linked to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which erupted after Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, resulting in around 1,200 Israeli deaths and 250 hostages taken.
• In retaliation, Israel has conducted extensive military operations in Gaza, leading to over 41,000 Palestinian deaths. During this time, Hezbollah has engaged in shelling along the Israeli border, displacing approximately 63,439 Israelis and about 95,000 Lebanese due to Israeli counterstrikes.

Israeli Military Objectives

• Hours before the latest explosions targeting Hezbollah’s communication networks, Israel’s security cabinet revised its war objectives to include the safe return of displaced Israelis, alongside efforts to dismantle Hamas and recover hostages.
• Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hinted at possible military actions against Hezbollah to ensure the safety of northern Israeli communities, indicating a potential escalation of military operations.

Targeting Hezbollah’s Command Structure

• Israel claims to have significantly degraded Hamas’s capabilities in Gaza, allowing it to shift focus toward Hezbollah, a more formidable adversary. The recent attacks on Hezbollah’s communication networks aimed to disrupt its command structure and send a message to Iran, a crucial ally of Hezbollah.
• Former Israeli intelligence officials suggested these strikes targeted key Hezbollah figures to weaken the group’s operational effectiveness, and Hezbollah has vowed to deliver “just punishment” in response.

Risks of Further Escalation

• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has cautioned against the risks of further escalation in Lebanon.
• Possible scenarios include coordinated strikes from Iran and its allies or Israeli military actions against Hezbollah, which could lead to ground incursions to destroy missile stockpiles and establish buffer zones.

Concerns for India

• The escalating conflict poses significant concerns for India, which has approximately 9 million nationals living in the region—many of whom are primary earners for their families.
• Additionally, two-thirds of India’s crude oil and natural gas imports come from West Asia, making any disruption a threat to its energy security.
• India has maintained a balanced diplomatic stance between Israel and the Palestinians, but increased hostilities involving Iran could complicate this balance.

India’s Diplomatic Response

• While India has not formally commented on the escalating tensions, it has previously expressed serious concerns and called for immediate de-escalation.
• External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has engaged with both Iranian and Israeli counterparts, demonstrating India’s diplomatic involvement. However, the effectiveness of India’s leverage in this rapidly evolving situation remains uncertain.

Earth will temporarily get a ‘Mini-Moon’ in September

GS 3: Science and Technology: Mini-Moon

Why is it in the news?

• In late September, Earth’s gravitational field is set to temporarily capture a small asteroid, designated 2024 PT5, which will orbit the planet for about two months before escaping back into space.
• While Earth has experienced similar occurrences in the past, these mini-moons are rare, as most asteroids either bypass the planet or disintegrate upon entering the atmosphere.

More about the news

• Discovered on August 7 and detailed in the journal Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society, 2024 PT5 is notable for its small size—approximately 33 feet long—making it invisible to the naked eye and typical amateur telescopes, though it can be detected by professional equipment.
• Mini-moons are small asteroids that become temporarily captured by Earth’s gravity. Historically, only four mini-moons have been identified, and none remain in orbit. Some objects misidentified as mini-moons have included space debris and rocket stages from previous missions.
• 2024 PT5 was identified using the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). It is believed to have originated from the Arjuna asteroid belt, which contains space rocks in orbits similar to Earth’s. Notably, some researchers speculate that this asteroid could be a fragment ejected from the Moon following an impact.
• There is some debate about whether 2024 PT5 qualifies as a mini-moon. According to Lance Benner of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), it will follow a horseshoe-shaped orbit rather than completing a full revolution around Earth, which complicates its classification.

Significance:

• The temporary capture of 2024 PT5 presents an opportunity for scientists to enhance their understanding of asteroids that come close to Earth, including those that may one day collide with it.
• Many of these asteroids contain valuable minerals and water, which could be harvested for future space exploration and rocket fuel. Observing 2024 PT5 will contribute valuable data to ongoing asteroid research.

Harappan Civilisation: A Century of Exploration and Mysteries

GS 1: Culture and History: Harrapan Civilisation

Why is it in the news?

• A century ago, on September 20, 1924, John Marshall, then Director-General of the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI), announced the discovery of the Indus Valley Civilization, later named the Harappan civilization, in an article for The Illustrated London News.
• This Bronze Age civilization, centred around the region of modern-day Pakistan, has fascinated scholars from various disciplines due to its advanced urban planning, water management, and craftsmanship.

More about the news

• Key archaeological figures such as Daya Ram Sahni and Rakhal Das Banerji were instrumental in the initial discoveries at Harappa and Mohenjo-daro, respectively.
• Their findings revealed striking similarities in artifacts across these sites, which are located hundreds of kilometres apart. This led to the realization that these sites were part of a larger, interconnected civilization thriving between 3200 BC and 1500 BC.
• The Harappan civilization is characterized by remarkable features, including a developed script, standardized weights and measures, and advanced construction techniques using burnt brick.
• Scholars like Asko Parpola have noted the sophistication of Harappan art and technology, highlighting its complex trade networks, including maritime links to West Asia.
• The discovery of this civilization filled a significant gap in South Asian history, pushing back the timeline of settled life by over 3,000 years. It established the Harappan civilization as an ancient counterpart to the Egyptian and Mesopotamian cultures, revealing its maritime trade connections and contributions to the region’s history.
• Despite extensive research, many mysteries remain surrounding the Harappan civilization, including the undeciphered Indus script and the reasons for its eventual decline.
• As excavation continues, researchers hope to uncover more insights into this enigmatic civilization that has captivated historians and archaeologists alike.

US Federal Reserve cut interest rates

GS 3: Economy: US Fed Reserve

Why is it in the news?

• The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points marks a significant shift in its monetary policy.
• This change comes in response to the economic disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent inflation spikes.

Analysis of the Fed’s Policy Shift

• Initially, the Fed lowered rates to near zero to stimulate recovery. However, as inflation surged, partly due to geopolitical issues like the war in Ukraine, the Fed implemented a series of aggressive rate hikes to rein in rising prices.
• After maintaining a high rate of 5.5% for over a year, recent economic data prompted a reassessment of priorities, shifting the focus from strict inflation control to balancing employment levels.

Global Implications of Rate Cuts

• The repercussions of the Fed’s decision extend beyond the United States, especially impacting emerging economies like India. As the world’s largest economy, changes in US monetary policy can significantly influence global capital flows.
• Lower interest rates in the US typically make borrowing cheaper, encouraging foreign investors to channel funds into India—whether through direct investment or portfolio assets like stocks and bonds. For India, which is often in search of foreign capital to fuel its growth, this can be a beneficial outcome.

Effects on Currency and Trade

• Furthermore, sustained rate cuts may lead to a depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies, including the Indian rupee. A stronger rupee can negatively affect Indian exporters by making their goods more expensive abroad while providing an advantage to importers. This dynamic could alter the trade balance in India, creating a mix of challenges and opportunities.

Reserve Bank of India’s Considerations

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is under pressure to consider cutting its own interest rates in light of the Fed’s actions. However, the RBI’s decision-making process is influenced by different factors, such as domestic inflation targets and GDP growth, rather than a direct concern for employment figures.
• Unlike the Fed, the RBI operates within a framework that allows for GDP growth even in the absence of proportional job creation.

Conclusion

• As the Fed seeks to achieve a “soft landing” for the US economy—balancing inflation control with sustained growth—India must navigate these shifts in the global economic landscape.
• With the upcoming presidential election in the US, potential changes in trade and fiscal policies could further complicate economic forecasts.
• Ultimately, the interplay between US monetary policy and India’s economic conditions underscores the complexities of global finance and the interconnectedness of today’s economies.