Why is it in the news?

• Simmering tensions between North and South Korea are on the rise, with North Korea recently announcing that over 1.4 million citizens have applied to join the army.
• This announcement follows North Korea’s destruction of a section of roads and railway lines along its southern border in retaliation for South Korea allegedly sending drones carrying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets.
• While the two Koreas have technically been at war for more than 70 years, this recent escalation is particularly significant.

Historical Context

• The Korean peninsula was under Japanese control from 1910 until Japan’s surrender in 1945, which marked the end of World War II.
• Afterward, the peninsula was divided into two separate states: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the North, supported by the Soviet Union and Chinese communists, and the Republic of Korea in the South, backed by the United States.
• In 1950, North Korea, led by Kim Il Sung, invaded the South, initiating a three-year-long Korean War. Despite initial gains, US forces helped repel the invasion, and neither side ultimately secured a decisive victory. An armistice was signed in 1953, creating the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
• However, no permanent peace treaty was established, leaving both nations with aspirations for reunification, potentially by force.
• Since the 1970s, both Koreas have attempted negotiations for “peaceful reunification,” achieving significant agreements in 2000, 2007, and 2018. However, tangible progress has been limited.
• Meanwhile, North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear weapons program, resulting in heavy sanctions from the UN Security Council, the US, and its allies.

Genesis of Current Tensions

• In 2019, a meeting between then-US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi ended abruptly, failing to produce significant progress on denuclearization or sanctions relief.
• This setback was a notable loss of face for Kim, leading North Korea to abandon efforts to normalize relations with both the US and South Korea, further intensifying its nuclear program. Since then, tensions between the two Koreas have escalated.
• In January 2024, Kim announced a shift in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) stance toward the South, labelling it the “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”
• In July, North Korea fortified its southern border and began sending helium balloons filled with trash into the South as retaliation for South Korean activists launching “propaganda-laden” balloons into the North.
• By blowing up the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, which connect the two Koreas, the DPRK has effectively severed ties with the South, squashing hopes for peaceful reunification.

Is War Impending?

• Experts describe the current situation as “more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950.” They point out that North Korea’s increasing ties with Russia and China have emboldened it against the deterrent effects of South Korea’s alliance with the US, warning that reliance solely on threats of retaliation may be risky in this environment.
• However, not all experts believe that war is imminent. Some suggest that North Korea may be using military confrontation as a means to bolster internal cohesion. They argue that rising tensions often lead North Korea to emphasize external threats to enhance loyalty to the regime.