Why is it in the news?

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal monsoon rains for India in 2024, with showers in June-September likely to be 6% more than the annual average of 87 cm during these months.

More about the news

• El Nino conditions, which usually lead to diminished rainfall in India, affected the monsoon last year but are expected to fade by June and transition to La Nina, which typically brings surplus rainfall by the second half of the monsoon season.
• The IMD uses statistical associations and dynamical approaches to forecast the monsoon, both of which indicate a similar outlook for this year.
• The IMD will provide updates on the monsoon forecast in May, just ahead of the monsoon onset in June, including information on spatial distribution across the country.
• There is a 30% chance of monsoon rains being categorized as ‘excess,’ which is a significant increase compared to the usual 17% chance of such heavy rain.
• Positive factors influencing the forecast include a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia.
• The forecast suggests that above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except northwest, east, and northeast India.