Why is it in the news?

• India finds itself at a critical juncture amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, as the two nations teeter on the brink of all-out war once again.
• Following Iran’s recent missile strikes on Israel, which involved almost 200 missiles, both countries appear poised for a potentially devastating conflict.
• The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has emphasized the need for restraint and the importance of addressing issues through dialogue and diplomacy.

 Diplomatic engagement

• New Delhi has yet to formally offer a mediatory role, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged in conversations with leaders from both sides.
• In a recent discussion with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Modi expressed deep concern over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, reaffirming India’s commitment to restoring peace and stability in the region.
• Similarly, his dialogue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu focused on preventing regional escalation, ensuring the safe release of hostages, and restoring peace.

The Need for leverage

• For India to play a more significant role as a mediator, it would require not only open communication channels with both Iran and Israel but also substantial leverage over the conflicting parties.
• India’s relationships with these nations are complex and intertwined, particularly given its strategic ties to Israel—enhanced during Modi’s tenure—and its longstanding partnership with Iran, particularly in terms of energy supply and regional security issues.

 Stakes involved for India

• India’s stakes in this conflict extend beyond diplomatic concerns; the country has approximately 18,000 nationals in Israel and 5,000 to 10,000 in Iran, with an estimated 9 million Indians in the broader region.
• An escalation could jeopardize the safety of these citizens and disrupt India’s vital oil supplies, which constitute around 80% of its total imports. Additionally, ongoing economic partnerships with major Arab countries could be adversely affected.

Balancing Relationships

• In navigating this intricate landscape, India must balance its relationships with both Israel and Iran, particularly as historical tensions, such as past attacks and diplomatic incidents, could complicate its position.
• A wider conflict could limit India’s ability to remain neutral, challenging its diplomatic strategies.

Regional Dynamics and Key Players

• India’s interests are closely aligned with regional dynamics, where various actors play crucial roles. Qatar has emerged as a significant mediator, engaging with all sides and providing substantial aid to Palestine.
• Egypt, with its border proximity to Gaza and Israel, has been proactive in proposing ceasefire initiatives, while Saudi Arabia seeks to maintain its leadership role in the Islamic world amidst complicated ties with Iran.
• The UAE shares a similar interest in stability for economic reasons and has pursued normalization efforts with Israel.

The Role of External Mediators

• Turkey serves as a key back channel, maintaining communication lines among Iran, Israel, and Western allies. The United States remains a traditional mediator, although its relationship with Iran is fraught with mistrust, complicating its efforts to foster dialogue.
• Meanwhile, China is positioning itself as a potential mediator, attempting to enhance its influence in the region through various initiatives.

Conclusion

• As tensions mount, India’s ability to act effectively in this crisis will depend on its diplomatic agility, leveraging its relationships with both Iran and Israel, and fostering stability in an increasingly volatile region.