Why is it in the news?

• In September 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended a significant Quad meeting in the United States with Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.
• This meeting was pivotal as it solidified the Quad’s role as a potential security alliance, with the Wilmington Declaration hinting at a unified effort to contain China, although it did not explicitly mention the country.

An Analysis

Current State of India-China Relations

• The relationship between India and China has deteriorated, marked by a stalemate along the northern borders, particularly in the Galwan region.
• Despite positive public statements, India has increased military vigilance in these areas, with no progress in negotiations in regions like Depsang Plains and Demchok.
• Friction points have multiplied, limiting Indian forces’ access to previously accessible patrolling points. In response, India is bolstering its military capabilities along the China-India border with advanced weaponry.

China’s Perception and Military Strategy

• China remains largely unfazed by India’s military enhancements, bolstered by a significantly larger defense budget.
• China’s confidence, along with its historical reliance on surprise tactics, suggests that it may not react passively to India’s growing alignment with the West. Under Xi Jinping, China’s leadership has adopted an increasingly assertive nationalism, which could be triggered by India’s closer ties with the Quad nations.

The Challenge of Nationalism

• India must navigate its relationships with both China and its Quad partners cautiously. Aligning too closely with nations hostile to China could provoke a negative response from Beijing.
• Historically, Xi Jinping has signalled a shift in China’s foreign policy, emphasizing a more aggressive stance toward external threats. Thus, India should remain vigilant and assess China’s potential reactions to its strategic choices.

Distinguishing Threat Perceptions

• India’s strategic analysts have long recognized that the border issue with India does not constitute a real threat to China’s sovereignty. Despite longstanding territorial claims by China, it understands that conflicts along the Himalayan border are not existential threats.
• However, China’s concerns are amplified regarding its eastern seaboard and Pacific claims, which are viewed as vital to its national security.

Impacts of India’s Western Alignment

• India’s recent alignment with the West may be interpreted by China as a shift in strategic positioning. While there have been recent overtures from China aimed at reducing tensions, India remains cautious, interpreting these gestures with skepticism.
• Beijing’s increasing concern over India’s role in the Quad and its perception of it as a U.S.-led coalition could exacerbate tensions.

The Importance of Diplomatic Balance

• India must avoid sending any signals that could escalate confrontations with China. Adopting a confrontational approach could have serious repercussions for bilateral relations.
• While India should not align with Xi’s vision of a ‘community of shared future,’ it also shouldn’t fully subscribe to Western narratives framing China’s rise as a global threat.

Conclusion

• In light of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics, it is crucial for India to manage its security relationships judiciously. While it has no intention of joining any efforts aimed at containing China, India must communicate its position effectively to avoid misunderstandings.
• Maintaining a stance that emphasizes its autonomy in Asian and global security is vital for India’s future. The perception that India is part of a concerted effort to checkmate China should be avoided to ensure its independent strategic interests are upheld.