Why is it in the news?

• South India is increasingly concerned about its aging population. The CM of Andhra Pradesh has announced plans to introduce legislation aimed at incentivizing families to have more children. He warns that a fertility rate below two children is leading to a swift decline in the youth demographic.
• As potential changes to parliamentary representation loom, there are worries that South India’s aging crisis, fuelled by lower fertility rates, will eventually affect Northern states as well.

Current Demographic Trends

• A 2020 report by a technical group within the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare projects significant aging in India’s population over the next few decades.
• While both Northern and Southern states are experiencing this trend, the proportion of individuals aged 60 and older is expected to rise more sharply in Southern states, which adopted lower fertility rates earlier. For instance, UP is projected to reach Replacement Level of Fertility next year, over twenty years after Andhra Pradesh achieved this milestone.
• From 2011 to 2036, India’s population is anticipated to grow by 31.1 crore, with nearly half of this increase occurring in five states: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh. In comparison, the five Southern states—Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu—are expected to contribute only 2.9 crore, or 9%, to this growth.
• As fertility rates decline and life expectancy increases, the older population is expected to more than double, rising from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036, increasing their share from 8.4% to 14.9%. Specifically, the percentage of people aged 60 and older in Kerala will rise from 13% in 2011 to 23% in 2036, while in Uttar Pradesh, it will increase from 7% to 12%.

Implications of Aging and Smaller Populations

• The combination of an aging population and a relatively smaller populace in Southern states presents distinct challenges. A robust working-age population is often seen as a demographic dividend, indicated by a dependency ratio below 50%.
• However, the growing number of older individuals may require states to allocate more resources for their care.
• Additionally, the smaller population raises concerns about potential losses in political representation during electoral delimitation, as Southern states could receive fewer Lok Sabha seats for achieving demographic transitions ahead of Northern states, particularly the “BIMARU” states.

Effectiveness of Pro-Natalist Policies

• Naidu has pointed to the experiences of countries like Japan, China, and several European nations facing aging populations, suggesting that similar strategies could be effective in South India.
• However, evidence suggests that pro-natalist policies have had limited success in raising birth rates in affluent and educated populations. Leading scholars, including social demographer Sonalde Desai, Kulkarni and others from JNU, agree that such initiatives have largely failed.
• Countries such as Japan, China, Korea, and France have employed various pro-natalist strategies with minimal success. In contrast, Scandinavian nations have seen some positive outcomes due to strong family support, childcare programs, gender equality, and paternity leave.

Migration as a Potential Solution

• As incentives to increase fertility may not yield results, experts suggest that internal migration could provide a viable alternative. Desai emphasizes that migration is one of the three primary factors influencing population change, alongside fertility and mortality.
• Both Desai and Kulkarni argue that migration can help balance demographic transitions between Northern and Southern India. This trend is already in progress, with Southern states likely to attract working-age migrants, reducing the need for extensive investments in education and upbringing.
• This model is similar to that of the United States, where immigrants have significantly contributed to economic growth and demographic stability.

Conclusion

• As South India navigates the challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates, prioritizing internal migration and enhancing labour force productivity may prove more effective than merely incentivizing larger families.
• By adopting these strategies, the region can better harness its demographic shifts to ensure sustained economic growth and social stability.